Öz
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de para politikalarının uluslararası rezervler üzerindeki etkileri 1990–2024 dönemi için ampirik olarak analiz edilmektedir. Yapısal kırılmaların ani değil, yumuşak geçişler şeklinde ortaya çıkabileceği varsayımından hareketle Fourier yaklaşımı benimsenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, Fourier ADF, Fourier GLS ve Fourier KPSS birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, yapısal kırılmaları içsel olarak dikkate alan Fourier ARDL sınır testi ile araştırılmış ve para politikası göstergeleri ile uluslararası rezervler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya konulmuştur. Uzun dönem katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre, incelenen dönem zarfında Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme performansı kısa vadeli krediler tarafından belirlenmektedir. Buna karşılık, politika faizi ve para arzı gibi geleneksel para politikası araçlarının rezervler üzerinde uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeli sonuçları, kısa dönemde politika faizi ve kredi hacminin rezervler üzerinde güçlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler yarattığını, ancak bu etkilerin kalıcı olmadığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de para politikası–rezerv ilişkisinin doğrusal olmayan ve zamanla değişen bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermekte; rezerv yönetiminin kısa vadeli faiz kararlarından ziyade kredi politikaları, büyüme dinamikleri ve makro ihtiyati araçlarla birlikte ele alınması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Etik Beyan
Bu çalışma kapsamında etik kurul onayı veya katılımcı onamı gerektiren herhangi bir uygulama, deneysel müdahale ya da anket çalışması yürütülmemiştir. Araştırma, bütünüyle ikincil veri analizi, literatür incelemesi ve açık erişimli veri kaynakları kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın tüm aşamaları, bilimsel araştırma ve yayın etiği ilkelerine uygun biçimde yürütülmüştür.
Kaynakça
- Aizenman, J., & Lee, J. (2007). International reserves: Precautionary versus mercantilist views: Theory and evidence. Open Economies Review, 18(2), 191–214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-007-9030-z
- Akardeniz, E. (2025). The Relationship Between Central Bank Reserves and Policy Interest Rates: Evidence from Newly Industrialized Countries. Ekonomi ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(2), 123–146. https://doi.org/10.56668/jefr.1786760
- Akyüz, Y., & Boratav, K. (2003). The making of the Turkish financial crisis. World Development, 31(9), 1549–1566. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00108-6
- Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationary test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x Boratav, K. (2003). Türkiye iktisat tarihi: 1908–2002. İmge Kitabevi.
- Edwards, S. (1983). The demand for international reserves and exchange rate adjustments: the case of LDCs, 1964-1972. Economica, 50(199), 269–280. https://doi.org/10.2307/2553969
- Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
- Flood, R. P., & Marion, N. P. (2002, April). Holding international reserves in an era of high capital mobility (IMF Working Paper No. 02/62). International Monetary Fund. https://ssrn.com/abstract=879548
- Frenkel, J. A., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal international reserves. The Economic Journal, 91(362), 507–514. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232599
- International Monetary Fund. (2015). Assessing reserve adequacy—Specific proposals. IMF Policy Paper. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-reserve-adequacy-specific-proposals-pp4947
- Jeanne, O., & Rancière, R. (2011). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging market countries: A new formula and some applications. Economic Journal, 121(555), 905–930. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02435.x
- Kara, A. H. (2015). Interest Rate Corridor and the Monetary Policy Stance (No. 1513). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan.
- Ludlow, J., & Enders, W. (2000). Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(3), 333–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00048-0
- McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366643
- Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J. C., & Taylor, A. M. (2010). Financial stability, the trilemma, and international reserves. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(2), 57–94. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.2.57
- Orhangazi, Ö., & Yeldan, A.E. (2023). Turkey in turbulence: Heterodoxy or a new chapter in neoliberal peripheral development?. Development and Change, 54(5), 1197–1225. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12792 Özatay, F. (2020). Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası ve krizler. Efil Yayınevi.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Rodrigues, P.M.M. & Taylor, A.M. (2012), The Flexible Fourier Form and Local Generalised Least Squares De-trended Unit Root Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74: 736–759. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00665.x
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications (pp. 281–314). New York, NY: Springer New York. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745
- Tsong, C. C., Lee, C. F., Tsai, L. J., & Hu, T. C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
- Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2010). 2010 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası raporu. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/64c78adc-6ffc-4fb6-904c-4429620f142c/Baskan_ParaPol10.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-64c78adc-6ffc-4fb6-904c-4429620f142c-m3fB7u5
- World Bank. (2024). Türkiye Economic Monitor: On the Right Tack [Rapor No. IDC1-099458505312431939] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099458505312431939/pdf/IDU192f13edf11627147e918f3c10886dbf7d0f1.pdf
- Yücel, F., & Kalyoncu, H. (2010). Finansal krizlerin öncü göstergeleri ve ülke ekonomilerini etkileme kanalları: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 53–69.
THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATIONS ON INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN TURKEY IN THE PERIOD 1990-2024
Öz
This paper empirically analyzes the effects of monetary policies on international reserves in Turkey for the period 1990-2024. Based on the assumption that structural breaks may occur as smooth transitions rather than abrupt ones, the Fourier approach is adopted. In this framework, Fourier ADF, Fourier GLS and Fourier KPSS unit root tests are applied. The long-run relationship between the variables is investigated with the Fourier ARDL bounds test, which takes structural breaks into account endogenously, and the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship between monetary policy indicators and international reserves is revealed. According to the long-run coefficient estimation results, the level of international reserves is determined by economic growth performance and short-term credits. On the other hand, traditional monetary policy instruments such as policy rate and money supply are found to have no statistically significant effect on reserves in the long run. The error correction model results indicate that the policy rate and credit volume have strong and statistically significant effects on reserves in the short run, but these effects are not permanent. The findings suggest that the monetary policy-reserve relationship in Turkey has a non-linear and time-varying structure. The results suggest that reserve management should be considered together with credit policies, growth dynamics and macroprudential tools rather than short-term interest rate decisions.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Etik Beyan
Within the scope of this study, no application, experimental intervention or survey study requiring ethics committee approval or participant consent was conducted. The study was conducted entirely through secondary data analysis, literature review and open access data sources. All stages of the study were conducted in accordance with the principles of scientific research and publication ethics.
Kaynakça
- Aizenman, J., & Lee, J. (2007). International reserves: Precautionary versus mercantilist views: Theory and evidence. Open Economies Review, 18(2), 191–214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-007-9030-z
- Akardeniz, E. (2025). The Relationship Between Central Bank Reserves and Policy Interest Rates: Evidence from Newly Industrialized Countries. Ekonomi ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(2), 123–146. https://doi.org/10.56668/jefr.1786760
- Akyüz, Y., & Boratav, K. (2003). The making of the Turkish financial crisis. World Development, 31(9), 1549–1566. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00108-6
- Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationary test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x Boratav, K. (2003). Türkiye iktisat tarihi: 1908–2002. İmge Kitabevi.
- Edwards, S. (1983). The demand for international reserves and exchange rate adjustments: the case of LDCs, 1964-1972. Economica, 50(199), 269–280. https://doi.org/10.2307/2553969
- Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
- Flood, R. P., & Marion, N. P. (2002, April). Holding international reserves in an era of high capital mobility (IMF Working Paper No. 02/62). International Monetary Fund. https://ssrn.com/abstract=879548
- Frenkel, J. A., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal international reserves. The Economic Journal, 91(362), 507–514. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232599
- International Monetary Fund. (2015). Assessing reserve adequacy—Specific proposals. IMF Policy Paper. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/assessing-reserve-adequacy-specific-proposals-pp4947
- Jeanne, O., & Rancière, R. (2011). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging market countries: A new formula and some applications. Economic Journal, 121(555), 905–930. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02435.x
- Kara, A. H. (2015). Interest Rate Corridor and the Monetary Policy Stance (No. 1513). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan.
- Ludlow, J., & Enders, W. (2000). Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(3), 333–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00048-0
- McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366643
- Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J. C., & Taylor, A. M. (2010). Financial stability, the trilemma, and international reserves. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(2), 57–94. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.2.57
- Orhangazi, Ö., & Yeldan, A.E. (2023). Turkey in turbulence: Heterodoxy or a new chapter in neoliberal peripheral development?. Development and Change, 54(5), 1197–1225. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12792 Özatay, F. (2020). Türkiye ekonomisinde para politikası ve krizler. Efil Yayınevi.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Rodrigues, P.M.M. & Taylor, A.M. (2012), The Flexible Fourier Form and Local Generalised Least Squares De-trended Unit Root Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74: 736–759. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00665.x
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications (pp. 281–314). New York, NY: Springer New York. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745
- Tsong, C. C., Lee, C. F., Tsai, L. J., & Hu, T. C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
- Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. (2010). 2010 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası raporu. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/64c78adc-6ffc-4fb6-904c-4429620f142c/Baskan_ParaPol10.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-64c78adc-6ffc-4fb6-904c-4429620f142c-m3fB7u5
- World Bank. (2024). Türkiye Economic Monitor: On the Right Tack [Rapor No. IDC1-099458505312431939] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099458505312431939/pdf/IDU192f13edf11627147e918f3c10886dbf7d0f1.pdf
- Yücel, F., & Kalyoncu, H. (2010). Finansal krizlerin öncü göstergeleri ve ülke ekonomilerini etkileme kanalları: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 53–69.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Makro İktisat (Diğer) |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 31 Aralık 2025 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 15 Mart 2026 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 26 Mart 2026 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.52791/aksarayiibd.1852313 |
| IZ | https://izlik.org/JA84EC89BT |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2026 Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1 |