TÜRKİYE’DE 1990–2024 DÖNEMİ PARA POLİTİKASI UYGULAMALARININ ULUSLARARASI REZERVLERE ETKİSİ

Erhan Akardeniz

doi:10.52791/aksarayiibd.1852313

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TÜRKİYE’DE 1990–2024 DÖNEMİ PARA POLİTİKASI UYGULAMALARININ ULUSLARARASI REZERVLERE ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de para politikalarının uluslararası rezervler üzerindeki etkileri 1990–2024 dönemi için ampirik olarak analiz edilmektedir. Yapısal kırılmaların ani değil, yumuşak geçişler şeklinde ortaya çıkabileceği varsayımından hareketle Fourier yaklaşımı benimsenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, Fourier ADF, Fourier GLS ve Fourier KPSS birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, yapısal kırılmaları içsel olarak dikkate alan Fourier ARDL sınır testi ile araştırılmış ve para politikası göstergeleri ile uluslararası rezervler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya konulmuştur. Uzun dönem katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre, incelenen dönem zarfında Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme performansı kısa vadeli krediler tarafından belirlenmektedir. Buna karşılık, politika faizi ve para arzı gibi geleneksel para politikası araçlarının rezervler üzerinde uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeli sonuçları, kısa dönemde politika faizi ve kredi hacminin rezervler üzerinde güçlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler yarattığını, ancak bu etkilerin kalıcı olmadığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de para politikası–rezerv ilişkisinin doğrusal olmayan ve zamanla değişen bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermekte; rezerv yönetiminin kısa vadeli faiz kararlarından ziyade kredi politikaları, büyüme dinamikleri ve makro ihtiyati araçlarla birlikte ele alınması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATIONS ON INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN TURKEY IN THE PERIOD 1990-2024

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the effects of monetary policies on international reserves in Turkey for the period 1990-2024. Based on the assumption that structural breaks may occur as smooth transitions rather than abrupt ones, the Fourier approach is adopted. In this framework, Fourier ADF, Fourier GLS and Fourier KPSS unit root tests are applied. The long-run relationship between the variables is investigated with the Fourier ARDL bounds test, which takes structural breaks into account endogenously, and the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship between monetary policy indicators and international reserves is revealed. According to the long-run coefficient estimation results, the level of international reserves is determined by economic growth performance and short-term credits. On the other hand, traditional monetary policy instruments such as policy rate and money supply are found to have no statistically significant effect on reserves in the long run. The error correction model results indicate that the policy rate and credit volume have strong and statistically significant effects on reserves in the short run, but these effects are not permanent. The findings suggest that the monetary policy-reserve relationship in Turkey has a non-linear and time-varying structure. The results suggest that reserve management should be considered together with credit policies, growth dynamics and macroprudential tools rather than short-term interest rate decisions.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

Within the scope of this study, no application, experimental intervention or survey study requiring ethics committee approval or participant consent was conducted. The study was conducted entirely through secondary data analysis, literature review and open access data sources. All stages of the study were conducted in accordance with the principles of scientific research and publication ethics.

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Macroeconomics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Erhan Akardeniz ^*
0000-0003-2269-8182
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 26, 2026

Submission Date

December 31, 2025

Acceptance Date

March 15, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 18 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.52791/aksarayiibd.1852313

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA84EC89BT

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Akardeniz, E. (2026). TÜRKİYE’DE 1990–2024 DÖNEMİ PARA POLİTİKASI UYGULAMALARININ ULUSLARARASI REZERVLERE ETKİSİ. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(1), 105-120. https://doi.org/10.52791/aksarayiibd.1852313