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Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için döviz kuru, ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktır.
Bu amaçla, veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sisteminden elde edilmiştir.
Araştırma dönemi üçer aylık 1989-2016 yıllarıdır. Analizde Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır.
Elde edilen sonuçlara göre,istatistiksel olarakdeğişkenler arasında anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Sukar, A.-H., & Hassan, S. (Spring 2001). US exports and time-varying volatility of real exchange rate. Global Finance Journal, 12(1), s. 109–119. Aktaş, C. (2010). Türkiye’ de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat Ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11), s. 123-140. Aristotelous, K. (2001). Exchange-rate volatility, exchange rate regime , and trade volume: evidence from the UK- US export function (1889-1999). Economics Letter, 72, s. 87-94. Arize, A. C. (1995, Jul.). The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation. Southern Economic Journal, 62(1), s. 34-43. Arize, A. C. (1998). The Effects Of Excahange Rate Volatility On US Imports: an Empirical Investigation. International Economic Journal, 12(3). Arize, A., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. (2000, January). Exchange- Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC’ s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), s. 10-17. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H., & Hegerty, S. (2015). Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the USA and Indonesia. New Zealand Economic Papers, 49(1), s. 78-102. Bailey, M., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (1986, September). Exchange Rate variability and trade performance: evidencefrom the big seven industrial countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 122(3), s. 466-477. Bailey, M., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (1987). The Impact of Exchange-rate volatility on export growth: some theoretical considerations and empiracal results. journal of Policy Modeling, 9(1), s. 225-243. Chou, W. L. (2000). Exchange Rate Variability and China’ s Exports. Journal of Comperative Economics, 28, s. 61-79. Choudhry, T. (2005). Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan. Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 19, s. 51-71. Cushman, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 15, s. 46-63. De Grauwe, P. (1988, March). Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade. IMF Staff Papers, s. 63-84. Demez, s., & Ustaoğlu, M. (2012). Exchange Rate Volatility’ s Impact on Turkey’s Exports: an Empirical analyze for 1992-2010. Procedia - social and Behavioral Sciences, 41, s. 168-176. Ekanayake, E., & Chatrna, D. (2010). THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON SRI LANKAN EXPORTS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION. Journal of International Business and Economy, 11(1), s. 51-68. Gagnon, J. E. (1989). Exchange Rate Variatiy and the level of International Trade. International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of the Federal Reserve System. Sayfa | 111 AKSARAY ÜNİVERSİTESİ İİBF DERGİSİ | Mayıs 2017 - Cilt 9 - Sayı 2 Gotur, P. (1985, September). Effects of Exchange rate Volatility on trade: some Further Evidence. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 32(3), s. 475-512. Hooper, P., & Kohlhagen, S. (1978, November). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8(4), s. 483-511. Ibikunle, J., & Akhanolu, A. (2011). An Empirical Investigation of the Link Between Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade in Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(3), s. 175-183. Karaca, O. (2003). Türkiye’ de Enflasyon - Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), s. 247-255. Koray, F., & Lastrapes, W. (1989, November). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(4), s. 708-712. Koray, F., & Lastrapes, W. (2003). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 2(Fall), s. 197-206. Lastrapes, W., & Koray, F. (1990). Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3). Mckenzie, M. D. (1998, January). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 8(1), s. 21–38. Nazlioğlu, S. (2013). Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkish Industry -Level Export: Panel Cointegration Analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), s. 1088-1107. Ozturk, I., & Acaravcı, A. (2003). Döviz kurundaki Değişkenliğin Türkiye İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 2(Fall 2002-2003), s. 197-206. Özmen, M. (2007). Farklı Döviz Kuru Rejimleri Altında Hisse Senetleri Fiyatları İle Döviz Kurları arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(1), s. 519-538. Pozo, S. (1992, May). Conditional Exchange -Rate Volatility and The Volume Of International Trade: Evidence From The Early 1900s. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(2), s. 325-329. Sweidan, O. D. (2013). The effects of Exchange Rate on Exports and Imports: The case of Jordan. The International Trade Journal, 27, s. 156-172. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. (2013). Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 26, s. 190-205. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. (2013). Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 26, s. 190- 205. Thursby, J., & Thursby, M. (1987, August). Bilateral Trade Flows, The Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Rate. The Review of economics and Statistics, 69(3), s. 488-495. Toda, H., & Yamamoto, T. (1995, March - April). Statistical Inference In Vector Auto-Regressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), s. 225-250. Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 4(1), s. 83-99. Vieira, F., & MacDonald, R. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(2), s. 203-221. Wesseh, P., & Niu, L. (2012, January). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: New Evidence from South Africa. International Review of Business Research Papers, 8(1), s. 140-165. Yılmaz, Ö., Güngör, B., & Kaya, V. (1997). Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik. İMKB Dergisi, 9(14), s. 1-16.
Ayrıntılar
Birincil Dil
Türkçe
Konular
İşletme
Bölüm
Araştırma Makalesi
Yayımlanma Tarihi
30 Nisan 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi
1 Ocak 2017
Kabul Tarihi
-
Yayımlandığı Sayı
Yıl 2017 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2