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Investıgatıon Of The Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rate, Import And Export For Turkey

Year 2017, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 105 - 112, 30.04.2017

Hakan Altın Cemil Süslü

Abstract

The aim of this study is investigate the relationshipbetween exchange rate, import and export for Turkey. For

this aim, data’s were acquired The Central bank of Turkey Elektronic Data Delivery System.The research period

is between quarterly the years 1989-2016. Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality test was applied to the analysis.

According to the results, there is a no significant relationship among the variables.

Keywords

Exchange rate import export Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

References

  • Sukar, A.-H., & Hassan, S. (Spring 2001). US exports and time-varying volatility of real exchange rate. Global Finance Journal, 12(1), s. 109–119. Aktaş, C. (2010). Türkiye’ de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat Ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11), s. 123-140. Aristotelous, K. (2001). Exchange-rate volatility, exchange rate regime , and trade volume: evidence from the UK- US export function (1889-1999). Economics Letter, 72, s. 87-94. Arize, A. C. (1995, Jul.). The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation. Southern Economic Journal, 62(1), s. 34-43. Arize, A. C. (1998). The Effects Of Excahange Rate Volatility On US Imports: an Empirical Investigation. International Economic Journal, 12(3). Arize, A., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. (2000, January). Exchange- Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC’ s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), s. 10-17. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H., & Hegerty, S. (2015). Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the USA and Indonesia. New Zealand Economic Papers, 49(1), s. 78-102. Bailey, M., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (1986, September). Exchange Rate variability and trade performance: evidencefrom the big seven industrial countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 122(3), s. 466-477. Bailey, M., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (1987). The Impact of Exchange-rate volatility on export growth: some theoretical considerations and empiracal results. journal of Policy Modeling, 9(1), s. 225-243. Chou, W. L. (2000). Exchange Rate Variability and China’ s Exports. Journal of Comperative Economics, 28, s. 61-79. Choudhry, T. (2005). Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan. Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 19, s. 51-71. Cushman, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 15, s. 46-63. De Grauwe, P. (1988, March). Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade. IMF Staff Papers, s. 63-84. Demez, s., & Ustaoğlu, M. (2012). Exchange Rate Volatility’ s Impact on Turkey’s Exports: an Empirical analyze for 1992-2010. Procedia - social and Behavioral Sciences, 41, s. 168-176. Ekanayake, E., & Chatrna, D. (2010). THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON SRI LANKAN EXPORTS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION. Journal of International Business and Economy, 11(1), s. 51-68. Gagnon, J. E. (1989). Exchange Rate Variatiy and the level of International Trade. International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of the Federal Reserve System. Sayfa | 111 AKSARAY ÜNİVERSİTESİ İİBF DERGİSİ | Mayıs 2017 - Cilt 9 - Sayı 2 Gotur, P. (1985, September). Effects of Exchange rate Volatility on trade: some Further Evidence. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 32(3), s. 475-512. Hooper, P., & Kohlhagen, S. (1978, November). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8(4), s. 483-511. Ibikunle, J., & Akhanolu, A. (2011). An Empirical Investigation of the Link Between Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade in Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(3), s. 175-183. Karaca, O. (2003). Türkiye’ de Enflasyon - Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), s. 247-255. Koray, F., & Lastrapes, W. (1989, November). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(4), s. 708-712. Koray, F., & Lastrapes, W. (2003). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 2(Fall), s. 197-206. Lastrapes, W., & Koray, F. (1990). Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3). Mckenzie, M. D. (1998, January). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 8(1), s. 21–38. Nazlioğlu, S. (2013). Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkish Industry -Level Export: Panel Cointegration Analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), s. 1088-1107. Ozturk, I., & Acaravcı, A. (2003). Döviz kurundaki Değişkenliğin Türkiye İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 2(Fall 2002-2003), s. 197-206. Özmen, M. (2007). Farklı Döviz Kuru Rejimleri Altında Hisse Senetleri Fiyatları İle Döviz Kurları arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(1), s. 519-538. Pozo, S. (1992, May). Conditional Exchange -Rate Volatility and The Volume Of International Trade: Evidence From The Early 1900s. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(2), s. 325-329. Sweidan, O. D. (2013). The effects of Exchange Rate on Exports and Imports: The case of Jordan. The International Trade Journal, 27, s. 156-172. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. (2013). Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 26, s. 190-205. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. (2013). Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 26, s. 190- 205. Thursby, J., & Thursby, M. (1987, August). Bilateral Trade Flows, The Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Rate. The Review of economics and Statistics, 69(3), s. 488-495. Toda, H., & Yamamoto, T. (1995, March - April). Statistical Inference In Vector Auto-Regressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), s. 225-250. Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 4(1), s. 83-99. Vieira, F., & MacDonald, R. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(2), s. 203-221. Wesseh, P., & Niu, L. (2012, January). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: New Evidence from South Africa. International Review of Business Research Papers, 8(1), s. 140-165. Yılmaz, Ö., Güngör, B., & Kaya, V. (1997). Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik. İMKB Dergisi, 9(14), s. 1-16.

Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi

Year 2017, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 105 - 112, 30.04.2017

Hakan Altın Cemil Süslü

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için döviz kuru, ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktır.

Bu amaçla, veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sisteminden elde edilmiştir.

Araştırma dönemi üçer aylık 1989-2016 yıllarıdır. Analizde Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır.

Elde edilen sonuçlara göre,istatistiksel olarakdeğişkenler arasında anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru İthalat İhracat Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

References

  • Sukar, A.-H., & Hassan, S. (Spring 2001). US exports and time-varying volatility of real exchange rate. Global Finance Journal, 12(1), s. 109–119. Aktaş, C. (2010). Türkiye’ de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat Ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11), s. 123-140. Aristotelous, K. (2001). Exchange-rate volatility, exchange rate regime , and trade volume: evidence from the UK- US export function (1889-1999). Economics Letter, 72, s. 87-94. Arize, A. C. (1995, Jul.). The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation. Southern Economic Journal, 62(1), s. 34-43. Arize, A. C. (1998). The Effects Of Excahange Rate Volatility On US Imports: an Empirical Investigation. International Economic Journal, 12(3). Arize, A., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. (2000, January). Exchange- Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC’ s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), s. 10-17. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H., & Hegerty, S. (2015). Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the USA and Indonesia. New Zealand Economic Papers, 49(1), s. 78-102. Bailey, M., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (1986, September). Exchange Rate variability and trade performance: evidencefrom the big seven industrial countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 122(3), s. 466-477. Bailey, M., Tavlas, G., & Ulan, M. (1987). The Impact of Exchange-rate volatility on export growth: some theoretical considerations and empiracal results. journal of Policy Modeling, 9(1), s. 225-243. Chou, W. L. (2000). Exchange Rate Variability and China’ s Exports. Journal of Comperative Economics, 28, s. 61-79. Choudhry, T. (2005). Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan. Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 19, s. 51-71. Cushman, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 15, s. 46-63. De Grauwe, P. (1988, March). Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade. IMF Staff Papers, s. 63-84. Demez, s., & Ustaoğlu, M. (2012). Exchange Rate Volatility’ s Impact on Turkey’s Exports: an Empirical analyze for 1992-2010. Procedia - social and Behavioral Sciences, 41, s. 168-176. Ekanayake, E., & Chatrna, D. (2010). THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON SRI LANKAN EXPORTS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION. Journal of International Business and Economy, 11(1), s. 51-68. Gagnon, J. E. (1989). Exchange Rate Variatiy and the level of International Trade. International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of the Federal Reserve System. Sayfa | 111 AKSARAY ÜNİVERSİTESİ İİBF DERGİSİ | Mayıs 2017 - Cilt 9 - Sayı 2 Gotur, P. (1985, September). Effects of Exchange rate Volatility on trade: some Further Evidence. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 32(3), s. 475-512. Hooper, P., & Kohlhagen, S. (1978, November). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8(4), s. 483-511. Ibikunle, J., & Akhanolu, A. (2011). An Empirical Investigation of the Link Between Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade in Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(3), s. 175-183. Karaca, O. (2003). Türkiye’ de Enflasyon - Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), s. 247-255. Koray, F., & Lastrapes, W. (1989, November). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(4), s. 708-712. Koray, F., & Lastrapes, W. (2003). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 2(Fall), s. 197-206. Lastrapes, W., & Koray, F. (1990). Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(3). Mckenzie, M. D. (1998, January). The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 8(1), s. 21–38. Nazlioğlu, S. (2013). Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkish Industry -Level Export: Panel Cointegration Analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), s. 1088-1107. Ozturk, I., & Acaravcı, A. (2003). Döviz kurundaki Değişkenliğin Türkiye İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 2(Fall 2002-2003), s. 197-206. Özmen, M. (2007). Farklı Döviz Kuru Rejimleri Altında Hisse Senetleri Fiyatları İle Döviz Kurları arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(1), s. 519-538. Pozo, S. (1992, May). Conditional Exchange -Rate Volatility and The Volume Of International Trade: Evidence From The Early 1900s. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(2), s. 325-329. Sweidan, O. D. (2013). The effects of Exchange Rate on Exports and Imports: The case of Jordan. The International Trade Journal, 27, s. 156-172. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. (2013). Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 26, s. 190-205. Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. (2013). Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 26, s. 190- 205. Thursby, J., & Thursby, M. (1987, August). Bilateral Trade Flows, The Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Rate. The Review of economics and Statistics, 69(3), s. 488-495. Toda, H., & Yamamoto, T. (1995, March - April). Statistical Inference In Vector Auto-Regressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), s. 225-250. Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 4(1), s. 83-99. Vieira, F., & MacDonald, R. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(2), s. 203-221. Wesseh, P., & Niu, L. (2012, January). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: New Evidence from South Africa. International Review of Business Research Papers, 8(1), s. 140-165. Yılmaz, Ö., Güngör, B., & Kaya, V. (1997). Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik. İMKB Dergisi, 9(14), s. 1-16.
There are 1 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Review Article
Authors

Hakan Altın

Cemil Süslü

Publication Date April 30, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Altın, H., & Süslü, C. (2017). Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(2), 105-112.
AMA Altın H, Süslü C. Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Journal of ASU FEAS. April 2017;9(2):105-112.
Chicago Altın, Hakan, and Cemil Süslü. “Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat Ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi”. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 9, no. 2 (April 2017): 105-12.
EndNote Altın H, Süslü C (April 1, 2017) Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 9 2 105–112.
IEEE H. Altın and C. Süslü, “Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi”, Journal of ASU FEAS, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 105–112, 2017.
ISNAD Altın, Hakan - Süslü, Cemil. “Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat Ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi”. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 9/2 (April 2017), 105-112.
JAMA Altın H, Süslü C. Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Journal of ASU FEAS. 2017;9:105–112.
MLA Altın, Hakan and Cemil Süslü. “Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat Ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi”. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 2, 2017, pp. 105-12.
Vancouver Altın H, Süslü C. Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Journal of ASU FEAS. 2017;9(2):105-12.
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