Öz
Bu çalışma mültecilerin komşu ülkelere göçünü belirleyen makro ekonomik faktörleri değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Birleşmiş
Milletler Yüksek Komiserliği rakamlarına gore 2011 mart ayında Suriye’de iç savaşın başlamasından itibaren Mayıs 2016 itibari ile 4.8
milyon Suriyeli mülteci Ortadoğu ve yakın çevresine göç etmiştir. Suriyeli mültecilerin en yoğun bulunduğu ülkeler Türkiye, Ürdün,
Lübnan ve Irak olarak sıralanabilir. 1991-2014 yıllarına ait verilerle Suriyeli mülteci nüfusunu en fazla barındıran (Türkiye, Lübnan,
Ürdün, Irak, Suudi Arabistan, Fas, Tunus ve Mısır) ülkelere ait veriler 2011 Suriye iç savaşına kukla değişkeni eklenerek analiz
edilmiştir. İsrail, İran Filistin, Katar, Umman, Yemen, Cezayir ve Bahreyn gibi Suriye’ye komşu ya da yakın çevre Ortadoğu ülkeleri
veri yetersizliği nedeniyle analize dâhil edilememiştir. Panel Ortalama Grup ARDL analizi mültecilerin komşu ülkelere göçünü
belirleyen makro ekonomik faktörleri belirlemede kullanılmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Alix-Garcia, J. Ve Saah, D. 2010. “The effect of refugee inflows on host communities: Evidence from Tanzania.” The World Bank Economic Review, 24 (1): 148–170 Balkan ,B ve Tumer S (2016) . “Immigration and Prices: QuasiExperimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey “. TCMB Workıng Paper NO: 16/01 Carpio , X ve Wagner M (2015) “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market” Policy Research Working Paper , World Bank 7402. Birleşmiş Milletler Mülteciler Yüksek Komiserliği UNHCR,www. http://www.unhcr.org/turkey/home.php?page=52 erişim. 10.08.2016 Borjas, G. (2003). “The labor demand curve is downward sloping: Reexamining the impact of immigration on the labor market.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (4): 1335–1374. Borjas, George (2013). "The Slowdown in the Economic Assimilation of Immigrants: Aging and Cohort Effects Revisited Again," NBER Working Papers 19116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Domar Gujarati (2009).Temel Ekonometri (Eçv. Ü Şenesen ve G Şenesen) Ayhan Matb.İstanbul Dustmann, Christian Glitz, Albrecht ve Frattini, Tommaso (2008) “The Labour Market Impact of Immigration “CReAM Discussion Paper No 11/08. Gomez, M.P., Christensen, A., Araya, Y.Y. and Harild, N. 2010. “The Impacts of Refugees on Neighboring Countries: A Development Challenge.” World Development Report No. 2011, The World Bank Hein, J. (1993). “Refugees, immigrants, and the state.” Annual Review of Sociology 19: 43–59. Moore, W. and Shellman, S. (2004). “Fear of persecution: Forced migration, 1952–1995.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5): 723–45. Murdoch, J. and Sandler, T. (2002) Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison. Defence and Peace Economics 13 (6): 451–464. Schmeidl, S. (1997). “Exploring the causes of forced migration: A pooled time-series analysis, 1971–1990.” Social Science Quarterly 78 (2): 284–308 Son, L ve Noja G (2012) A macroeconometric panel data analysis of the shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union Theoretical and Applied Economics Volume XIX (2012), No. 11(576), pp. 15-30. Syrian Centre for Policiy Research, SCPR (2016),SCPR-reportConfronting-fragmentation-2015-EN.pdf Whitaker, B.E. (2002). “Refugees in Western Tanzania: The distribution of burdens and benefitsamong local hosts.” Journal of Refugee Studies 15 (4): 339–358. Wolla, Scott A., (2014). "The Economics of Immigration: A Story of Substitutes and Complements,"Page One Economics Newsletter, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 1-5, May.
Öz
This paper aims to assess macroeconomic determinants and shaping factors of refugess to neighboring countries. As of May 2016,
nearly 4.8 million registered Syrians have sought refuge in the Middle East and the around the world according to the United Nations
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). The largest numbers of Syrian refugees
are located mostly in the Turkey , Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. The data between 1991-2014, belonging to the countries which have high
population density of Syrian refuges (Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan ,Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt) is
analyzed with using dummy for 2011 Syrian conflict. The countries Israel, Iran, Philistine, Qatar, Oman ,Yemen, Algeria and Bahrain
cannot be added to model due to lack of the data. Panel Mean Group ARDL analysis is used to examine the macro economic
determinants of refugees into neighboring countries.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Alix-Garcia, J. Ve Saah, D. 2010. “The effect of refugee inflows on host communities: Evidence from Tanzania.” The World Bank Economic Review, 24 (1): 148–170 Balkan ,B ve Tumer S (2016) . “Immigration and Prices: QuasiExperimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey “. TCMB Workıng Paper NO: 16/01 Carpio , X ve Wagner M (2015) “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market” Policy Research Working Paper , World Bank 7402. Birleşmiş Milletler Mülteciler Yüksek Komiserliği UNHCR,www. http://www.unhcr.org/turkey/home.php?page=52 erişim. 10.08.2016 Borjas, G. (2003). “The labor demand curve is downward sloping: Reexamining the impact of immigration on the labor market.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (4): 1335–1374. Borjas, George (2013). "The Slowdown in the Economic Assimilation of Immigrants: Aging and Cohort Effects Revisited Again," NBER Working Papers 19116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Domar Gujarati (2009).Temel Ekonometri (Eçv. Ü Şenesen ve G Şenesen) Ayhan Matb.İstanbul Dustmann, Christian Glitz, Albrecht ve Frattini, Tommaso (2008) “The Labour Market Impact of Immigration “CReAM Discussion Paper No 11/08. Gomez, M.P., Christensen, A., Araya, Y.Y. and Harild, N. 2010. “The Impacts of Refugees on Neighboring Countries: A Development Challenge.” World Development Report No. 2011, The World Bank Hein, J. (1993). “Refugees, immigrants, and the state.” Annual Review of Sociology 19: 43–59. Moore, W. and Shellman, S. (2004). “Fear of persecution: Forced migration, 1952–1995.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5): 723–45. Murdoch, J. and Sandler, T. (2002) Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison. Defence and Peace Economics 13 (6): 451–464. Schmeidl, S. (1997). “Exploring the causes of forced migration: A pooled time-series analysis, 1971–1990.” Social Science Quarterly 78 (2): 284–308 Son, L ve Noja G (2012) A macroeconometric panel data analysis of the shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union Theoretical and Applied Economics Volume XIX (2012), No. 11(576), pp. 15-30. Syrian Centre for Policiy Research, SCPR (2016),SCPR-reportConfronting-fragmentation-2015-EN.pdf Whitaker, B.E. (2002). “Refugees in Western Tanzania: The distribution of burdens and benefitsamong local hosts.” Journal of Refugee Studies 15 (4): 339–358. Wolla, Scott A., (2014). "The Economics of Immigration: A Story of Substitutes and Complements,"Page One Economics Newsletter, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 1-5, May.
Ayrıntılar
| Bölüm | Derleme Makale |
|---|---|
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Nisan 2016 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2016Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2 |
