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AŞIRI GÜVEN EĞİLİMİ İLE YATIRIM PERFORMANSI ARASINDA RİSK EĞİLİMİNİN ARACILIK ROLÜ: BORSA İSTANBUL’DA BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 37, 157 - 172, 11.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1150709

Öz

Geleneksel finans teorileri yatırımcıların rasyonel olduğu ve olası alternatiflerden kendisine en yüksek faydayı sağlayacak olanı seçtiği varsayımına dayanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte davranışsal finans, yatırımcıların tamamen rasyonel olmadığını ve karar verme süreçlerinin çeşitli davranışsal faktörlerden etkilendiğini ifade etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı, Borsa İstanbul (BIST)’da işlem yapan bireysel yatırımcıların aşırı güven eğilimleri ile yatırım performansı arasındaki ilişkide risk eğiliminin aracılık rolünü incelemektir. Veri toplama aracı olarak anket yöntemi seçilmiş ve elde edilen veriler Lineer Regresyon modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda aşırı güven eğiliminin yatırım performansı üzerinde, aşırı güven eğiliminin risk eğilimi üzerinde ve risk eğiliminin yatırım performansı üzerinde pozitif yönlü anlamlı ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Aynı zamanda aşırı güven eğilimi ile yatırım performansı arasındaki ilişkide risk eğiliminin kısmi aracılık etkisinin varlığı da kanıtlanmıştır. Bu sonuca göre çalışmanın, bireysel yatırımcıların davranışsal önyargılar konusundaki farkındalığının artmasına ve böylece daha iyi yatırım kararları almalarına katkı sağlayacağı söylenebilir.

Kaynakça

  • Abul, S. J. (2019). Factors İnfluencing Individual Investor Behaviour: Evidence From The Kuwait Stock Exchange. Asian Social Science, 15(3), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v15n3p27.
  • Ahmad, M. ve Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence Heuristic-Driven Bias in Investment Decision-Making and Performance: Mediating Effects of Risk Perception and Moderating Effects of Financial Literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. 38(1), 60-90. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-07-2020-0116.
  • Ahmed, Z., Rasool, S., Saleem, Q., Khan, M. A. ve Kanwal, S. (2022). Mediating Role of Risk Perception Between Behavioral Biases and Investor’s Investment Decisions. SAGE Open, 12(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221097394.
  • Akhtar, F. ve Das, N. (2020). Investor Personality and Investment Performance: from the Perspective of Psychological Traits. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets. 12(3), 333-352. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-11-2018-0116.
  • Altınışık, R., Recai, C., Bayraktaroğlu, S. ve Yıldırım, E. (2012). Sosyal Bilimlerde Araştırma Yöntemleri SPSS Uygulamalı. İstanbul: Sakarya Kitabevi.
  • Aytekin, Y. E. ve Aygün, M. (2016). Finansta Yeni Bir Alan “Davranışsal Finans”. Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (2), 143-156.
  • Bakar, S. ve Yi, A. N. C. (2016). The Impact of Psychological Factors on Investors’ Decision Making in Malaysian Stock Market: A Case Of Klang Valley And Pahang. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, 319-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)00040-X.
  • Baker, H. K. ve Nofsinger, J. R. (2010). Behavioral Finance: An Overview. In H. Kent Baker and John R. Nofsinger (eds.) Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons. 3-21.
  • Baker, H. K. ve Ricciardi, V. (2014). How Biases Affect Investor Behaviour. The European Financial Review, February-March, 7-10. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2457425.
  • Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The Moderator–Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173-1182.
  • Bouteska, A. ve Regaieg, B. (2018). Loss Aversion, Overconfidence of İnvestors and Their Impact O-on Market Performance Evidence From The US Stock Markets. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science. 25(50), 451-478. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-07-2017-0081.
  • Chira, I., Adams, M. ve Thornton, B. (2008). Behavioral Bias Within The Decision Making Process. Journal of Business & Economics Research. 6(8), 11-20. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629036.
  • Combrink, S. ve Lew, C. (2020). Potential Underdog Bias, Overconfidence and Risk Propensity in Investor Decision-Making Behavior. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 21(4), 337-351. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2019.1692843.
  • Hoffmann, A. O. ve Post, T. (2014). Self-Attribution Bias in Consumer Financial Decision-Making: How Investment Returns Affect İndividuals’ Belief in Skill. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 52, 23-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2014.05.005.
  • Jain, J., Walia, N. ve Gupta, S. (2019). Evaluation of Behavioral Biases Affecting Investment Decision Making of İndividual Equity Investors By Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Review of Behavioral Finance. 12(3), 297-314. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-03-2019-0044.
  • Jain, R., Jain, P. ve Jain, C. (2015). Behavioral Biases in the Decision Making of Individual Investors. IUP Journal of Knowledge Management, 13(3). 7-27.
  • Kahneman, D. ve Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Kalaycı, Ş. (Ed.). (2018). SPSS Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri (8. Baskı). Ankara: Dinamik Akademi. Kansal, P. ve Singh, S. (2018). Determinants of Overconfidence Bias in Indian Stock Market. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets. 10(4), 381-394. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-03-2017-0015.
  • Karagöz, Y. (2016). SPSS ve AMOS 23 Uygulamalı İstatistiksel Analizler. Ankara: Nobel Yayınevi.
  • Kengatharan, L. ve Kengatharan, N. (2014). The Influence of Behavioral Factors in Making İnvestment Decisions and Performance: Study on Investors of Colombo Stock Exchange, Sri Lanka. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 6(1), 1-23.
  • Kumar, S. ve Goyal, N. (2015). Behavioural Biases in Investment Decision Making–A Systematic Literature Review. Qualitative Research in financial markets. 7(1), 88-108. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-07-2014-0022. Kılıç, S. (2013). Doğrusal Regresyon Analizi. Journal of Mood Disorders, 3(2), 90-92.
  • Merkle, C. (2017). Financial Overconfidence Over Time: Foresight, Hindsight, and İnsight of Investors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 84, 68-87.
  • MKK. (2021). Yaş Grupları Bazında Yatırımcı Sayıları, Erişim Tarihi: 26 Temmuz 2022, https://www.vap.org.tr/yas-gruplari-bazinda-yatirimci-sayilari.
  • MKK. (2021). Yıllık İstatistiki Veriler, Erişim Tarihi: 26 Temmuz 2022, https://www.mkk.com.tr/tr-tr/Veri-Depolama-Hizmetleri/e-VERi/Sayfalar/Yillik-Istatistiki-Veriler.aspx.
  • MKK. (2022). Yıllık İstatistiki Veriler, Erişim Tarihi: 26 Temmuz 2022, https://www.vap.org.tr/illere-gore-yatirimci-sayilari
  • Phan, K. C. ve Zhou, J. (2014). Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior: An Empirical Study of the Vietnamese Stock Market. American Journal of Business and Management, 3(2), 77-94. https://doi.org/10.11634/216796061403527.
  • Riaz, T. ve Iqbal, H. (2015). Impact of Overconfidence, Illusion of Control, Self Control and Optimism Bias On Investors Decision Making; Evidence From Developing Markets. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(11), 110-116.
  • Shantha, K. V. A. (2019). Individual Investors’ Learning Behavior and Its Impact on their Herd Bias: An Integrated Analysis in the Context Of Stock Trading. Sustainability, 11(5), 1448.
  • Sökmen, A., Yazıcıoğlu, İ. ve Kenek, G. (2021). Katılımcı Liderlik, Duygusal Bağlılık ve İş Tatmini İlişkisi: Örgütsel Güvenin Aracılık Rolü. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(3), 2746-2758.
  • Statman, M. (1999). Behaviorial Finance: Past Battles and Future Engagements. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(6), 18-27. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v55.n6.2311.
  • Tekçe, B. ve Yılmaz, N. (2015). Are Individual Stock Investors Overconfident? Evidence from an Emerging Market. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 5, 35-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2015.02.003.
  • Tekçe, B., Yılmaz, N. ve Bildik, R. (2016). What Factors Affect Behavioral Biases? Evidence from Turkish Individual Stock Investors. Research in International Business and Finance, 37, 515-526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.11.017.
  • Tekin, B. (2016). Beklenen Fayda ve Beklenti Teorileri Bağlamında Geleneksel Finans-Davranışsal Finans Ayrımı. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 2(4), 75-107.
  • Türkiye Sermaye Piyasaları Birliği (2021). Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2021, Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2022, https://www.tspb.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Turkiye-Sermaye-Piyasasi-2021.pdf.
  • Ul Abdin, S. Z., Qureshi, F., Iqbal, J. ve Sultana, S. (2022). Overconfidence Bias and Investment Performance: A Mediating Effect Of Risk Propensity. Borsa Istanbul Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.03.001.

THE INTERMEDIATION ROLE OF RISK BIAS BETWEEN OVERCONFIDENCE AND INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE: A RESEARCH IN BORSA ISTANBUL

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 37, 157 - 172, 11.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1150709

Öz

Traditional financial theories are based on the assumption that investors are rational and choose the one that will give them the highest benefit from possible alternatives. However, behavioral finance states that investors are not completely rational, and their decision-making processes are affected by various behavioral factors. In this direction, the aim of this study is to examine the mediating role of risk bias in the relationship between the overconfidence bias of individual investors trading in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) on their investment performance. The survey method was chosen as the data collection tool and the obtained data were analyzed with the Linear Regression model. As a result of the study, positive significant relationships were found between the overconfidence bias on the investment performance, the overconfidence bias on the risk bias and the risk bias on the investment performance. At the same time, the existence of a partial mediation effect of risk bias in the relationship between overconfidence bias and investment performance has also been proven. According to this result, it can be said that the study will contribute to the awareness of individual investors about behavioral biases and thus to make better investment decisions.

Kaynakça

  • Abul, S. J. (2019). Factors İnfluencing Individual Investor Behaviour: Evidence From The Kuwait Stock Exchange. Asian Social Science, 15(3), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v15n3p27.
  • Ahmad, M. ve Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence Heuristic-Driven Bias in Investment Decision-Making and Performance: Mediating Effects of Risk Perception and Moderating Effects of Financial Literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. 38(1), 60-90. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-07-2020-0116.
  • Ahmed, Z., Rasool, S., Saleem, Q., Khan, M. A. ve Kanwal, S. (2022). Mediating Role of Risk Perception Between Behavioral Biases and Investor’s Investment Decisions. SAGE Open, 12(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221097394.
  • Akhtar, F. ve Das, N. (2020). Investor Personality and Investment Performance: from the Perspective of Psychological Traits. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets. 12(3), 333-352. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-11-2018-0116.
  • Altınışık, R., Recai, C., Bayraktaroğlu, S. ve Yıldırım, E. (2012). Sosyal Bilimlerde Araştırma Yöntemleri SPSS Uygulamalı. İstanbul: Sakarya Kitabevi.
  • Aytekin, Y. E. ve Aygün, M. (2016). Finansta Yeni Bir Alan “Davranışsal Finans”. Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (2), 143-156.
  • Bakar, S. ve Yi, A. N. C. (2016). The Impact of Psychological Factors on Investors’ Decision Making in Malaysian Stock Market: A Case Of Klang Valley And Pahang. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, 319-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)00040-X.
  • Baker, H. K. ve Nofsinger, J. R. (2010). Behavioral Finance: An Overview. In H. Kent Baker and John R. Nofsinger (eds.) Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons. 3-21.
  • Baker, H. K. ve Ricciardi, V. (2014). How Biases Affect Investor Behaviour. The European Financial Review, February-March, 7-10. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2457425.
  • Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The Moderator–Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173-1182.
  • Bouteska, A. ve Regaieg, B. (2018). Loss Aversion, Overconfidence of İnvestors and Their Impact O-on Market Performance Evidence From The US Stock Markets. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science. 25(50), 451-478. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-07-2017-0081.
  • Chira, I., Adams, M. ve Thornton, B. (2008). Behavioral Bias Within The Decision Making Process. Journal of Business & Economics Research. 6(8), 11-20. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2629036.
  • Combrink, S. ve Lew, C. (2020). Potential Underdog Bias, Overconfidence and Risk Propensity in Investor Decision-Making Behavior. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 21(4), 337-351. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2019.1692843.
  • Hoffmann, A. O. ve Post, T. (2014). Self-Attribution Bias in Consumer Financial Decision-Making: How Investment Returns Affect İndividuals’ Belief in Skill. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 52, 23-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2014.05.005.
  • Jain, J., Walia, N. ve Gupta, S. (2019). Evaluation of Behavioral Biases Affecting Investment Decision Making of İndividual Equity Investors By Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Review of Behavioral Finance. 12(3), 297-314. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-03-2019-0044.
  • Jain, R., Jain, P. ve Jain, C. (2015). Behavioral Biases in the Decision Making of Individual Investors. IUP Journal of Knowledge Management, 13(3). 7-27.
  • Kahneman, D. ve Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Kalaycı, Ş. (Ed.). (2018). SPSS Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri (8. Baskı). Ankara: Dinamik Akademi. Kansal, P. ve Singh, S. (2018). Determinants of Overconfidence Bias in Indian Stock Market. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets. 10(4), 381-394. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-03-2017-0015.
  • Karagöz, Y. (2016). SPSS ve AMOS 23 Uygulamalı İstatistiksel Analizler. Ankara: Nobel Yayınevi.
  • Kengatharan, L. ve Kengatharan, N. (2014). The Influence of Behavioral Factors in Making İnvestment Decisions and Performance: Study on Investors of Colombo Stock Exchange, Sri Lanka. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 6(1), 1-23.
  • Kumar, S. ve Goyal, N. (2015). Behavioural Biases in Investment Decision Making–A Systematic Literature Review. Qualitative Research in financial markets. 7(1), 88-108. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-07-2014-0022. Kılıç, S. (2013). Doğrusal Regresyon Analizi. Journal of Mood Disorders, 3(2), 90-92.
  • Merkle, C. (2017). Financial Overconfidence Over Time: Foresight, Hindsight, and İnsight of Investors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 84, 68-87.
  • MKK. (2021). Yaş Grupları Bazında Yatırımcı Sayıları, Erişim Tarihi: 26 Temmuz 2022, https://www.vap.org.tr/yas-gruplari-bazinda-yatirimci-sayilari.
  • MKK. (2021). Yıllık İstatistiki Veriler, Erişim Tarihi: 26 Temmuz 2022, https://www.mkk.com.tr/tr-tr/Veri-Depolama-Hizmetleri/e-VERi/Sayfalar/Yillik-Istatistiki-Veriler.aspx.
  • MKK. (2022). Yıllık İstatistiki Veriler, Erişim Tarihi: 26 Temmuz 2022, https://www.vap.org.tr/illere-gore-yatirimci-sayilari
  • Phan, K. C. ve Zhou, J. (2014). Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior: An Empirical Study of the Vietnamese Stock Market. American Journal of Business and Management, 3(2), 77-94. https://doi.org/10.11634/216796061403527.
  • Riaz, T. ve Iqbal, H. (2015). Impact of Overconfidence, Illusion of Control, Self Control and Optimism Bias On Investors Decision Making; Evidence From Developing Markets. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(11), 110-116.
  • Shantha, K. V. A. (2019). Individual Investors’ Learning Behavior and Its Impact on their Herd Bias: An Integrated Analysis in the Context Of Stock Trading. Sustainability, 11(5), 1448.
  • Sökmen, A., Yazıcıoğlu, İ. ve Kenek, G. (2021). Katılımcı Liderlik, Duygusal Bağlılık ve İş Tatmini İlişkisi: Örgütsel Güvenin Aracılık Rolü. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(3), 2746-2758.
  • Statman, M. (1999). Behaviorial Finance: Past Battles and Future Engagements. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(6), 18-27. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v55.n6.2311.
  • Tekçe, B. ve Yılmaz, N. (2015). Are Individual Stock Investors Overconfident? Evidence from an Emerging Market. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 5, 35-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2015.02.003.
  • Tekçe, B., Yılmaz, N. ve Bildik, R. (2016). What Factors Affect Behavioral Biases? Evidence from Turkish Individual Stock Investors. Research in International Business and Finance, 37, 515-526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.11.017.
  • Tekin, B. (2016). Beklenen Fayda ve Beklenti Teorileri Bağlamında Geleneksel Finans-Davranışsal Finans Ayrımı. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 2(4), 75-107.
  • Türkiye Sermaye Piyasaları Birliği (2021). Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2021, Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2022, https://www.tspb.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Turkiye-Sermaye-Piyasasi-2021.pdf.
  • Ul Abdin, S. Z., Qureshi, F., Iqbal, J. ve Sultana, S. (2022). Overconfidence Bias and Investment Performance: A Mediating Effect Of Risk Propensity. Borsa Istanbul Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.03.001.
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Salih Aydın 0000-0002-3817-1169

Yusuf Güneysu 0000-0002-6809-1995

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 5 Kasım 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 11 Kasım 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Sayı: 37

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydın, S., & Güneysu, Y. (2022). AŞIRI GÜVEN EĞİLİMİ İLE YATIRIM PERFORMANSI ARASINDA RİSK EĞİLİMİNİN ARACILIK ROLÜ: BORSA İSTANBUL’DA BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(37), 157-172. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1150709


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