Araştırma Makalesi
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Estimation of Tourism Demand Equation for Turkey: The Influences of Economic, Social and Political Factors

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 15 - 30, 01.11.2019

Öz

This study aims at revealing whether there is
any influence of socio-demographic characteristics of tourists, which are
proxied by levels of income and education, groups of age, and purposes of the
visit, on tourism demand for Turkey. Dataset of the paper includes 24 countries
representing 77.6% of total tourist arrivals to Turkey throughout period 2006-2017.
The numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic characteristics
are regressed on word of mouth effect (i.e. number of tourist arrivals in
previous year), level of income, and levels of substitute and relative prices
as well as transportation cost and terrorism variables via Bias Corrected Least
Squares Dummy Variable estimator. Empirical findings of the paper demonstrate
that the numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic
characteristics give different responses to changes in the above-mentioned
explanatory variables in magnitude, but sign of the responses are the same.
Therefore, it is concluded that there is no need to take socio-demographic
characteristics of tourists into consideration while Turkish tourism policies
are designed. Besides, it is found out that the most important determinants of
international tourism demand to Turkey are the word of mouth effect and the level
of substitute price so as to imply that Turkey should follow customer-oriented
and competitive tourism policies.

Kaynakça

  • Akal, M. (2004). "Forecasting Turkey’s Tourism Revenues by ARMAX Model", Tourism Management, 25(5), 565-580.
  • Bahar, O., & Kozak, M. (2013). Turizm Ekonomisi. Eskişehir: T.C. Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayını.
  • Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Barry, K., & O'Hagan, J. (1972). "An Econometric Study of British Tourist Expenditure in Ireland", Economıc And Socıal Revıew, 3(2), 143-161.
  • Bashagi, A., & Muchapondwa, E. (2009). "What Actions Could Boost International Tourism Demand for Tanzania?", Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 3(2), 59-75.
  • Bruno, G. (2005). "Approximating the Bias of the LSDV Estimator for Dynamic Unbalanced Panel Data Models", Economics Letters, 87(3), 361-366.
  • Bun, M., & Kiviet, J. (2003). "On the Diminishing Returns of Higher-order Terms in Asymptotic Expansions of Bias", Economics Letters, 79(2), 145-152.
  • Crouch, G. (1994). " The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice", Journal of Tourism Research, 32(4), 41-55.
  • Crouch, G. (1996). "Demand Elasticities in International Marketing A Meta-Analytical Application to Tourism", Journal of Business Research, 36(2), 117-136.
  • Doğru, T., Sirakaya-Turk, E., & Crouch, G. (2017). "Remodeling International Tourism Demand: Old Theory and New Evidence", Tourism Management, 60, 47-55.
  • Eryiğit, M., Kotil, E., & Eryiğit, R. (2010). "Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach", Tourism Economics, 16(3), 585-595.
  • Garin-Munoz, T. (2006). "Inbound International Tourism to Canary Islands: A Dynamic Panel Data Model", Tourism Management, 27(2), 281-291.
  • Garin-Munoz, T., & Montero-Martin, L. (2007). "Tourism in the Balearic Islands: A Dynamic Model for International Demand Using Panel Data", Tourism Management, 28(5), 1224-1235.
  • Greene, W. (1993). Econometric Analysis (2 Baskı). Macmillan.
  • Greene, W. (2002). Econometric Analysis (5. Baskı). New Jersey: Pearson.
  • Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic Econometrics (4. Baskı). New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • Habibi, F., & Abbasinejad, H. (2011). "Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia", Iranian Economic Review, 15(29), 27-41.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2004). "An Ardl Model of Aggregate Tourism Demand for Turkey", Global Business and Economic Review-Anthology, 1, 614-623.
  • Hill, R., Griffiths, W., & Lim, G. (2011). Principles of Econometrics (4 Baskı). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hsiao, C. (2007). "Panel Data Analysis-Advantages and Challenges", TEST, 16(1), 1-22.
  • İçöz, O., Var, T., & Kozak, M. (1998). "Tourism Demand in Turkey", Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1), 236-240.
  • Jintranun, J., Sriboonchitta, S., Calkins, P. & Chaiboonsri, C. (2011). "Thailand’s International Tourism Demand: Seasonal Panel Unit Roots and the Related Cointegration Model", Review of Economics & Finance, 1, 63-76.
  • Judson, R., & Owen, A. (1996). "Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists", Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 1-21.
  • Kiviet, J. (1995). "On Bias, Inconsistency, and Efficiency of Various Estimators in Dynamic Panel Data Models", Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 53-78.
  • Lee, C., Var, T., & Blaine, T. (1996). "Determinants of Inbound Tourist Expenditures", Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527-542.
  • Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. (2005). "Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting", Journal of Tourism Research, 44(1), 82-99
  • Lim, C. (1997). "Review of International Tourism Demand Models", Annals of Tourism Research, 24(4), 835-849.
  • Lim, C. (1999). "A Meta-Analytic Review of International Tourism Demand", Journal of Travel Research, 37(3), 273-284.
  • Morley, C. (1993). "Forecasting Tourism Demand Using Extrapolative Time Series Methods", Journal of Tourism Studies, 4(1), 19-25.
  • Nickell, S. (1981). "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects", Econometrica, 49(6), 1417-1426.
  • Peng, B., Song, H., Crouch, G., & Witt, S. (2015). "A Meta-Analysis of International Tourism Demand Elasticities", Journal of Travel Research, 54(5), 611-633.
  • Salleh, N., Siong-Hook, L., Ramachandran, S., Shuib , A., & Noor, Z. (2008). "Asian Tourism Demand for Malaysia: A Bound Test Approach", Contemporary Management Research, 4(4), 351-368.
  • Sequeira, T., & Nunes, P. (2008). "Does Country Risk Influence International Tourism? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis", The Economic Record, 84(265), 223–236.
  • Sinclair, M., & Stabler, M. (1997). The Economics of Tourism. Londra: Routledge.
  • Song, H., & Witt, S. (2000). Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches. Taylor & Francis Group.
  • Uysal, M., & Crompton, J. (1985). "An Overview of Approaches Used to Forecast Tourism Demand", Journal of Travel Research, 23(4), 7-15.
  • Yavaş, B., & Bilgin, Z. (1996). "Estimation of Tourism Demand in Turkey: A Pooled Cross-Section-Time-Series Analysis", Tourism Analysis, 1, 19-27.

Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 15 - 30, 01.11.2019

Öz

Bu çalışma, turistlerin gelir ve eğitim düzeyleri, yaş grupları ve geliş
amaçları ile temsil edilen sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin Türkiye’ye yönelik
turizm talebi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisinin olup olmadığını ortaya koymayı
amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmanın veri seti 2006-2017 döneminde Türkiye’ye gelen turistlerin
%77.6’sını temsil eden 24 ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Sosyo-demografik
karakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayıları, Yanlılığı
Düzeltilmiş Kukla Değişkenli En Küçük Kareler tahmincisi yardımıyla ağızdan
kulağa etki (önceki yılda gelen turist sayısı), gelir düzeyi, nispi ve ikame
fiyat düzeyleri yanında ulaşım maliyetleri ve terörizm değişkenleri üzerinden
tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, sosyo-demografik
karakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayılarının, yukarıda
sıralanan açıklayıcı değişkenlerde meydana gelen değişimlere farklı dereceden tepkiler
verdiğini ancak bu tepkilerin yönünün aynı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla
Türk turizm politikalarının tasarımında turistlerin sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin
dikkate alınmasına yer olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’ye
yönelik uluslararası turizm talebinin en önemli belirleyicilerinin, tüketici
odaklı ve rekabetçi turizm politikaları izlenmesi gerektiğini ima eder şekilde ağızdan
kulağa etki ile ikame fiyat düzeyi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Akal, M. (2004). "Forecasting Turkey’s Tourism Revenues by ARMAX Model", Tourism Management, 25(5), 565-580.
  • Bahar, O., & Kozak, M. (2013). Turizm Ekonomisi. Eskişehir: T.C. Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayını.
  • Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Barry, K., & O'Hagan, J. (1972). "An Econometric Study of British Tourist Expenditure in Ireland", Economıc And Socıal Revıew, 3(2), 143-161.
  • Bashagi, A., & Muchapondwa, E. (2009). "What Actions Could Boost International Tourism Demand for Tanzania?", Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 3(2), 59-75.
  • Bruno, G. (2005). "Approximating the Bias of the LSDV Estimator for Dynamic Unbalanced Panel Data Models", Economics Letters, 87(3), 361-366.
  • Bun, M., & Kiviet, J. (2003). "On the Diminishing Returns of Higher-order Terms in Asymptotic Expansions of Bias", Economics Letters, 79(2), 145-152.
  • Crouch, G. (1994). " The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice", Journal of Tourism Research, 32(4), 41-55.
  • Crouch, G. (1996). "Demand Elasticities in International Marketing A Meta-Analytical Application to Tourism", Journal of Business Research, 36(2), 117-136.
  • Doğru, T., Sirakaya-Turk, E., & Crouch, G. (2017). "Remodeling International Tourism Demand: Old Theory and New Evidence", Tourism Management, 60, 47-55.
  • Eryiğit, M., Kotil, E., & Eryiğit, R. (2010). "Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach", Tourism Economics, 16(3), 585-595.
  • Garin-Munoz, T. (2006). "Inbound International Tourism to Canary Islands: A Dynamic Panel Data Model", Tourism Management, 27(2), 281-291.
  • Garin-Munoz, T., & Montero-Martin, L. (2007). "Tourism in the Balearic Islands: A Dynamic Model for International Demand Using Panel Data", Tourism Management, 28(5), 1224-1235.
  • Greene, W. (1993). Econometric Analysis (2 Baskı). Macmillan.
  • Greene, W. (2002). Econometric Analysis (5. Baskı). New Jersey: Pearson.
  • Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic Econometrics (4. Baskı). New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • Habibi, F., & Abbasinejad, H. (2011). "Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia", Iranian Economic Review, 15(29), 27-41.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2004). "An Ardl Model of Aggregate Tourism Demand for Turkey", Global Business and Economic Review-Anthology, 1, 614-623.
  • Hill, R., Griffiths, W., & Lim, G. (2011). Principles of Econometrics (4 Baskı). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hsiao, C. (2007). "Panel Data Analysis-Advantages and Challenges", TEST, 16(1), 1-22.
  • İçöz, O., Var, T., & Kozak, M. (1998). "Tourism Demand in Turkey", Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1), 236-240.
  • Jintranun, J., Sriboonchitta, S., Calkins, P. & Chaiboonsri, C. (2011). "Thailand’s International Tourism Demand: Seasonal Panel Unit Roots and the Related Cointegration Model", Review of Economics & Finance, 1, 63-76.
  • Judson, R., & Owen, A. (1996). "Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists", Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 1-21.
  • Kiviet, J. (1995). "On Bias, Inconsistency, and Efficiency of Various Estimators in Dynamic Panel Data Models", Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 53-78.
  • Lee, C., Var, T., & Blaine, T. (1996). "Determinants of Inbound Tourist Expenditures", Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527-542.
  • Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. (2005). "Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting", Journal of Tourism Research, 44(1), 82-99
  • Lim, C. (1997). "Review of International Tourism Demand Models", Annals of Tourism Research, 24(4), 835-849.
  • Lim, C. (1999). "A Meta-Analytic Review of International Tourism Demand", Journal of Travel Research, 37(3), 273-284.
  • Morley, C. (1993). "Forecasting Tourism Demand Using Extrapolative Time Series Methods", Journal of Tourism Studies, 4(1), 19-25.
  • Nickell, S. (1981). "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects", Econometrica, 49(6), 1417-1426.
  • Peng, B., Song, H., Crouch, G., & Witt, S. (2015). "A Meta-Analysis of International Tourism Demand Elasticities", Journal of Travel Research, 54(5), 611-633.
  • Salleh, N., Siong-Hook, L., Ramachandran, S., Shuib , A., & Noor, Z. (2008). "Asian Tourism Demand for Malaysia: A Bound Test Approach", Contemporary Management Research, 4(4), 351-368.
  • Sequeira, T., & Nunes, P. (2008). "Does Country Risk Influence International Tourism? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis", The Economic Record, 84(265), 223–236.
  • Sinclair, M., & Stabler, M. (1997). The Economics of Tourism. Londra: Routledge.
  • Song, H., & Witt, S. (2000). Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches. Taylor & Francis Group.
  • Uysal, M., & Crompton, J. (1985). "An Overview of Approaches Used to Forecast Tourism Demand", Journal of Travel Research, 23(4), 7-15.
  • Yavaş, B., & Bilgin, Z. (1996). "Estimation of Tourism Demand in Turkey: A Pooled Cross-Section-Time-Series Analysis", Tourism Analysis, 1, 19-27.
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Onur Bayram 0000-0002-9640-8961

Abdurrahman Korkmaz 0000-0002-1374-5832

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Kasım 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Ağustos 2018
Kabul Tarihi 11 Eylül 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Bayram, O., & Korkmaz, A. (2019). Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 6(2), 15-30.
AMA Bayram O, Korkmaz A. Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri. Turizm Akademik Dergisi. Kasım 2019;6(2):15-30.
Chicago Bayram, Onur, ve Abdurrahman Korkmaz. “Sosyo-Demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri”. Turizm Akademik Dergisi 6, sy. 2 (Kasım 2019): 15-30.
EndNote Bayram O, Korkmaz A (01 Kasım 2019) Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri. Turizm Akademik Dergisi 6 2 15–30.
IEEE O. Bayram ve A. Korkmaz, “Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Turizm Akademik Dergisi, c. 6, sy. 2, ss. 15–30, 2019.
ISNAD Bayram, Onur - Korkmaz, Abdurrahman. “Sosyo-Demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri”. Turizm Akademik Dergisi 6/2 (Kasım 2019), 15-30.
JAMA Bayram O, Korkmaz A. Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri. Turizm Akademik Dergisi. 2019;6:15–30.
MLA Bayram, Onur ve Abdurrahman Korkmaz. “Sosyo-Demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri”. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, c. 6, sy. 2, 2019, ss. 15-30.
Vancouver Bayram O, Korkmaz A. Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri. Turizm Akademik Dergisi. 2019;6(2):15-30.