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The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 63, 1535 - 1550, 31.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.952435

Öz

This study analyzes the dynamic relations between economic activity, tourism expenditures, and real exchange rate in 9 most visited OECD countries using annual panel data for 2005-2019. To examine the dynamic relations, we first carried out the panel unit root tests to determine the degree of the integration of the variables. And then, using the Westerlund error-correction-based panel cointegration test, we found evidence of the existence of long-run relationships among variables. Therefore, we estimated a panel VECM model to obtain evidence of the causal relationship between the variables. According to the major finding of the studies, there is unidirectional causality from the real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures to real GDP. Also, real exchange rate granger causes tourism expenditures in the short run. Test results also provide evidence that both real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures granger cause to real GDP in the long run. However, there is no evidence of long-run granger causality when real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures are dependent variables. The results of the study imply that to create sustainable growth in the sample countries, they should increase the tourism sector's contribution to GDP, and the countries also should maintain their external competitiveness.

Kaynakça

  • Akinboade, O. A., & Braimoh, L. A. (2010). International tourism and economic development in South Africa: A Granger causality test. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(2), 149-163.
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Tourism and growth in the Caribbean–evidence from a panel error correction model. Tourism Economics, 18(2), 449-456.
  • Aslan, A. (2014). Tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current issues in Tourism, 17(4), 363-372.
  • Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied economics, 34(7), 877-884.
  • Breusch, T.S & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53.
  • Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2016). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430.
  • Brau, R., Lanza, A., & Pigliaru, F. (2007). How fast are small tourism countries growing? Evidence from the data for 1980–2003. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 603-613.
  • Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2010). Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61-74.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism economics, 10(3), 305-316.
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadesse, B. (2011). Research note: Tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries–further empirical evidence. Tourism Economics, 17(6), 1365-1373.
  • Ghali, M. A. (1976). Tourism and economic growth: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24(3), 527-538.
  • Gül, H., & Özer, M. (2018). Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey. European Journal of Tourism Research, 19, 86-97.
  • Gündüz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499-504.
  • Nowak, J. J., & Sahli, M. (2007). Coastal tourism and ‘Dutch disease’in a small island economy. Tourism Economics, 13(1), 49-65.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S. T. (2010). International tourism, higher education and economic growth: The case of North Cyprus. The World Economy, 33(12), 1955-1972.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S., Katırcıoğlu, S., & Altınay, M. (2018). Interactions between tourism and financial sector development: evidence from Turkey. The Service Industries Journal, 38(9-10), 519-542.
  • Kim, H. J., & Chen, M. H. (2006). Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan. Tourism management, 27(5), 925-933.
  • Lanza, A., Temple, P., & Urga, G. (2003). The implications of tourism specialisation in the long run: an econometric analysis for 13 OECD economies. Tourism management, 24(3), 315-321.
  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism management, 29(1), 180-192.
  • Mérida, A., & Golpe, A. A. (2016). Tourism‐led growth revisited for Spain: Causality, business cycles and structural breaks. International Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1), 39-51
  • Mishra, P. K., Rout, H. B., & Mohapatra, S. S. (2011). Causality between tourism and economic growth: Empirical evidence from India. European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 518-527.
  • Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., Prasad, A., & Prasad, B. C. (2010). Tourism and economic growth: a panel data analysis for Pacific Island countries. Tourism economics, 16(1), 169-183.
  • Nowak, J. J., Sahli, M., & Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2007). Tourism, capital good imports and economic growth: theory and evidence for Spain. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 515-536. Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries. Energy Policy, 68, 458-464.
  • Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2013). How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets. Tourism Management, 37, 52-57.
  • OECD (2020), OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2020, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6b47b985-en
  • Oh, C. O. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism management, 26(1), 39-44.
  • Payne, J. E., & Mervar, A. (2010). Research note: The tourism–growth nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089-1094.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence, J. Appl. Econ., 22 , 265-312
  • Sequeira, T. N., & Maçãs Nunes, P. (2008). Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach. Applied Economics, 40(18), 2431-2441.
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2019). International Tourism Highlights 2019, UNWTO Edition. https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152, 18.03.2021.
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2020) International Tourism Highlights 2020, UNWTO https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284422456 , 09.03.2021.

En Çok Ziyaret Edilen 9 OECD Üyesi Ülkede İktisadi Faaliyet, Turizm Harcamaları ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 63, 1535 - 1550, 31.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.952435

Öz

Bu çalışmada iktisadi faaliyetler, turizm harcamaları ve reel döviz kuru arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler 2005-2019 dönemine ait en çok ziyaret edilen 9 OECD üyesi ülkeye ait yıllık panel veri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla önce serilerin bütünleşme dereceleri daha sonra da aralarında eşbütüleşme olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Westerlund hata düzeltme temelli panel eşbütünleşme testi değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu nedenle analiz panel VECM ile yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları reel döviz kuru ile turizm harcamalarından reel GDP’ye doğru hem kısa dönem hem de uzun dönemde Granger nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca reel döviz kurundan da turizm harcamalarına doğru kısa dönemde bir nedensellik vardır. Çalışmanın sonuçları turizm harcamaları ile reel kur bağımlı değişken olduğunda değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem nedensellik göstermemektedir. Nihayet ne reel kur , ne de reel GDP’den turizm harcamalarına doğru herhangi bir nedensellik bulunamamıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, bu ülkelerde turizmin büyümeye katkısını sürdürebilmesi için desteklenmesi gerektiğini ve bu ülkelerin hem turizmi hem de iktisadi faaliyet düzeyini artırmak için dış rekabet düzeyini korumalarını gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Akinboade, O. A., & Braimoh, L. A. (2010). International tourism and economic development in South Africa: A Granger causality test. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(2), 149-163.
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Tourism and growth in the Caribbean–evidence from a panel error correction model. Tourism Economics, 18(2), 449-456.
  • Aslan, A. (2014). Tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current issues in Tourism, 17(4), 363-372.
  • Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied economics, 34(7), 877-884.
  • Breusch, T.S & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53.
  • Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2016). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430.
  • Brau, R., Lanza, A., & Pigliaru, F. (2007). How fast are small tourism countries growing? Evidence from the data for 1980–2003. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 603-613.
  • Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2010). Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61-74.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism economics, 10(3), 305-316.
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadesse, B. (2011). Research note: Tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries–further empirical evidence. Tourism Economics, 17(6), 1365-1373.
  • Ghali, M. A. (1976). Tourism and economic growth: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24(3), 527-538.
  • Gül, H., & Özer, M. (2018). Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey. European Journal of Tourism Research, 19, 86-97.
  • Gündüz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499-504.
  • Nowak, J. J., & Sahli, M. (2007). Coastal tourism and ‘Dutch disease’in a small island economy. Tourism Economics, 13(1), 49-65.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S. T. (2010). International tourism, higher education and economic growth: The case of North Cyprus. The World Economy, 33(12), 1955-1972.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S., Katırcıoğlu, S., & Altınay, M. (2018). Interactions between tourism and financial sector development: evidence from Turkey. The Service Industries Journal, 38(9-10), 519-542.
  • Kim, H. J., & Chen, M. H. (2006). Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan. Tourism management, 27(5), 925-933.
  • Lanza, A., Temple, P., & Urga, G. (2003). The implications of tourism specialisation in the long run: an econometric analysis for 13 OECD economies. Tourism management, 24(3), 315-321.
  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism management, 29(1), 180-192.
  • Mérida, A., & Golpe, A. A. (2016). Tourism‐led growth revisited for Spain: Causality, business cycles and structural breaks. International Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1), 39-51
  • Mishra, P. K., Rout, H. B., & Mohapatra, S. S. (2011). Causality between tourism and economic growth: Empirical evidence from India. European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 518-527.
  • Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., Prasad, A., & Prasad, B. C. (2010). Tourism and economic growth: a panel data analysis for Pacific Island countries. Tourism economics, 16(1), 169-183.
  • Nowak, J. J., Sahli, M., & Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2007). Tourism, capital good imports and economic growth: theory and evidence for Spain. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 515-536. Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries. Energy Policy, 68, 458-464.
  • Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2013). How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets. Tourism Management, 37, 52-57.
  • OECD (2020), OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2020, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6b47b985-en
  • Oh, C. O. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism management, 26(1), 39-44.
  • Payne, J. E., & Mervar, A. (2010). Research note: The tourism–growth nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089-1094.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence, J. Appl. Econ., 22 , 265-312
  • Sequeira, T. N., & Maçãs Nunes, P. (2008). Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach. Applied Economics, 40(18), 2431-2441.
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2019). International Tourism Highlights 2019, UNWTO Edition. https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152, 18.03.2021.
  • World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2020) International Tourism Highlights 2020, UNWTO https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284422456 , 09.03.2021.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sevilay Küçüksakarya 0000-0002-4224-6100

Mustafa Özer 0000-0001-9852-8441

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 63

Kaynak Göster

APA Küçüksakarya, S., & Özer, M. (2021). The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(63), 1535-1550. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.952435
AMA Küçüksakarya S, Özer M. The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. Temmuz 2021;16(63):1535-1550. doi:10.19168/jyasar.952435
Chicago Küçüksakarya, Sevilay, ve Mustafa Özer. “The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16, sy. 63 (Temmuz 2021): 1535-50. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.952435.
EndNote Küçüksakarya S, Özer M (01 Temmuz 2021) The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16 63 1535–1550.
IEEE S. Küçüksakarya ve M. Özer, “The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 16, sy. 63, ss. 1535–1550, 2021, doi: 10.19168/jyasar.952435.
ISNAD Küçüksakarya, Sevilay - Özer, Mustafa. “The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16/63 (Temmuz 2021), 1535-1550. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.952435.
JAMA Küçüksakarya S, Özer M. The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2021;16:1535–1550.
MLA Küçüksakarya, Sevilay ve Mustafa Özer. “The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 16, sy. 63, 2021, ss. 1535-50, doi:10.19168/jyasar.952435.
Vancouver Küçüksakarya S, Özer M. The Relationship Between Economic Activity, Tourism Expenditures and Real Exchange Rate in 9 Most Visited OECD Countries. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2021;16(63):1535-50.