The Lending Behavior of Investment and Development Banks in Turkey: Evidence from Quantile Regression Approach
Öz
The major aim of this paper is to analyze the extent to which the lending behavior of 14 investment and development banks in Turkiye is responsive to different quantiles of selected three core variables (i.e., (i) non-performing loans/total cash loans ratio (%), (ii) net profit/equity ratio (%), and (iii) liabilities/equity ratio (%)) for the period between 2005/January and 2020/December. The estimation of a change in the degree of lending behavior, proxied by total loans/total assets ratio (%), is stimulated through an endogenous model where different quantile regression models are performed to examine the miscellaneous relationship among the selected variables and to correct potential diagnostic problems stemming from the endogeneous regressors in the panel data analysis. The empirical results imply that there are two fundamental outputs produced in regression analyses: On the one hand, the lending behavior is affected only by the non-performing loans/total cash loans ratio with a negative coefficient sign and the liabilities/equity ratio with a positive coefficient sign, mostly at the lowest quantiles. On the other hand, the highest quantiles showed that the coefficients of these variables are insignificant. In addition, the net profit/equity ratio is only significant with a negative coefficient sign in limited quantiles. This means that there is a mild heterogeneity of statistically significant variables across different quantiles where the lowest quartile of lending behavior of investment and development banks is not confronted with the higher level of financial activities.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Investment and development banks Lending behavior Financial markets Turkish economy Quantile regression approach
Kaynakça
- Baker, M., Powell, D. & Smith, T. A. (2016). QREGPD: Stata module to perform quantile regression for panel data. Statistical Software Components S458157. Boston College Department of Economics. google scholar
- Breckling, J. & Chambers, R. (1988). M-Quantiles. Biometrika, 74(4), 761-772. google scholar
- Buchinsky, M. (1994). Changes in the U.S. wage structure 1963-1987: Application of quantile regression. Econometrica, 62(2), 405-458. google scholar
- Canay, I. A. (2011). A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 14(3), 368-386. google scholar
- Coad, A. & Rao, R. (2011). The firm-level employment effects of innovations in high-tech US manufacturing industries. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 21, 255-283. google scholar
- Freixas, X. & Rochet, J. C. (2008). Microeconomics of banking. Massachusetts: The MIT Press. google scholar
- Friendly, M. (2000). Visualizing Categorical Data. Cary: SAS Institute. google scholar
- Karahanoglu, I. (2017). Türk kalkınma ve yatırım bankalarının aktif karlılığını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 50, 167-186. google scholar
- Kaya, F. (2017). Bankacılık: Giriş ve ilkeleri. Ankara: Beta Basım Yayım. google scholar
- Kepenek, Y. (2016). Türkiye ekonomisi. Ankara: Remzi Kitabevi. google scholar
- Koç, S., Bağcı, A. & Işık, K. C. (2016). Kalkınma ve yatırım bankalarının performansları açısından değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye ölçeği (2002-2012). Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(1), 227-256. google scholar
- Koenker, R. (2004). Quantile regression for longitudinal data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91(1), 74-89. google scholar
- Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile regression. New York: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
- Koenker, R. & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50. google scholar
- Konuralp, G. (2005). Sermaye piyasaları: Analizler, kuramlar ve portföy yönetimi. Ankara: Alfa Yayınevi. google scholar
- Mendez, A. & Houghton, D. P. (2020). Sustainable banking: The role of multilateral development banks as norm entrepreneurs. Sustainability, 12(3), 972. google scholar
- Newey, W. K. & Powell, J. L. (1987). Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(4), 819-847. google scholar
- Ozturk, H., Gültekin-Karakaş, D. & Hisarciklilar, M. (2010). The role of development banking in promoting industrialization in Türkiye. Region et Developpement, 32, 153-178. google scholar
- Parasız, I. (2014). Modern bankacılık: Teori ve uygulama. Ankara: Ezgi Kitabevi. google scholar
- Parente, P. M. D. C. & Silva, J. M. C. S. (2016). Quantile regression with clustered data. Journal of Econometric Methods, 5(1), 1-15. google scholar
- Powell, D. (2014). Did the economic stimulus payments of 2008 reduce labor supply? Evidence from quantile panel data estimation. RAND Labor and Population Working Paper 710-713. google scholar
- Powell, D. (2016). Quantile regression with nonadditive fixed effects. RAND Labor and Population Working Paper Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b2be/fdf37fa0d1faa88675 e085e54584c4072e4a.pdf. google scholar
- Powell, D. (2017). Quantile treatment effects in the presence of covariates. RAND Labor and Population Working Paper. Available online: https://works.bepress.com/david_powell/4/ download/. google scholar
- Radic, N., Fiordelisi, F. & Girardone, C. (2012). Efficiency and risk-taking in pre-crisis investment banks. Journal of Financial Services Research, 41, 81-101. google scholar
- Skidelsky, R. (2020). Economic recovery in the age of COVID-19. Intereconomics, 55(6) 345-349. google scholar
- Terzi, N. (2017). Küresel finansta güncel konular. Ankara: Beta Basım Yayım. google scholar
- Thorne, J. & du Toit, C. (2009). A macro-framework for successful development banks. Development Southern Africa, 26(5), 677-694. google scholar
- Tukey, J. W. (1965). The future of processes of data analysis. Reprinted in: Jones, L.V. (ed.) 1986. The Collected Works of John W. Tukey. Volume IV: Philosophy and Principles of Data Analysis: 1965-1986. Monterey, CA: Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole, 517-547. google scholar
- Tukey, J. W. (1972). Some graphic and semigraphic displays. In: Bancroft, T. A. and Brown, S. A. (eds.), Statistical Papers in Honor of George W. Snedecor, Ames: Iowa State University Press. google scholar
- Uzunoglu, S. (2020). Bankacılığa giriş. Ankara: Literatür Yayınları. google scholar
- Wainer, H. (1974). The suspended rootogram and other visual displays: An empirical validation. The American Statistician, 28(4), 143-145. google scholar
- Wang, H. (2017). New multilateral development banks: Opportunities and challenges for global governance. Global Policy, 8(1), 113-118. google scholar
- Wojcik, D. & loannou, S. (2020). COVID-19 and finance: Market developments so far and potential impacts on the financial sector and centres. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, 111(3), 387-400. google scholar
- Yay, G. G. (2015). Para ve finans: Teori - politika. İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi University Press. google scholar
Türkiye’de Yatırım ve Kalkınma Bankalarının Kredi Verme Davranışı: Nicel Regresyon Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar
Öz
Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’deki 14 yatırım ve kalkınma bankasının kredi verme davranışının, seçilen üç temel değişkenin farklı niceliklerine ne ölçüde yanıt verdiğini analiz etmektir ((i) sorunlu krediler/toplam nakdi krediler oranı, (ii) net kar/özkaynak oranı (%) ve (iii) yükümlülükler/özkaynak oranı (%) (2005/Ocak ve 2020/Aralık dönemi için %)). Toplam krediler/toplam aktifler oranı (%) ile temsil edilen kredi verme davranışı derecesindeki bir değişikliğin tahmini, seçilen değişkenler arasındaki çeşitli ilişkiyi incelemek için ve panel veri analizinde endojen regresörlerden kaynaklanan potansiyel tanısal sorunları düzeltmek için farklı kantil regresyon modellerinin oluşturulduğu içsel bir model aracılığıyla uyarılır. Ampirik sonuçlar, regresyon analizlerinde üretilen iki temel çıktı olduğuna işaret eder: Bir yandan, kredi verme davranışı, çoğunlukla en düşük oranlarda, yalnızca negatif katsayı işaretli sorunlu krediler/toplam nakdi krediler oranından ve pozitif katsayı işaretli yükümlülükler/özkaynak oranından etkilenir. Öte yandan, en yüksek kantiller bu değişkenlerin katsayılarının önemsiz olduğunu göstermiştir. Ek olarak, net kar/özkaynak oranı sadece sınırlı niceliklerde negatif bir katsayı işareti ile anlamlıdır. Bir başka deyişle, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değişkenlerin hafif bir heterojenliği söz konusudur.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yatırım ve Kalkınma Bankaları Kredi Verme Davranışı Finansal Piyasalar Türkiye Ekonomisi Nicel Regresyon Yaklaşım
Kaynakça
- Baker, M., Powell, D. & Smith, T. A. (2016). QREGPD: Stata module to perform quantile regression for panel data. Statistical Software Components S458157. Boston College Department of Economics. google scholar
- Breckling, J. & Chambers, R. (1988). M-Quantiles. Biometrika, 74(4), 761-772. google scholar
- Buchinsky, M. (1994). Changes in the U.S. wage structure 1963-1987: Application of quantile regression. Econometrica, 62(2), 405-458. google scholar
- Canay, I. A. (2011). A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 14(3), 368-386. google scholar
- Coad, A. & Rao, R. (2011). The firm-level employment effects of innovations in high-tech US manufacturing industries. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 21, 255-283. google scholar
- Freixas, X. & Rochet, J. C. (2008). Microeconomics of banking. Massachusetts: The MIT Press. google scholar
- Friendly, M. (2000). Visualizing Categorical Data. Cary: SAS Institute. google scholar
- Karahanoglu, I. (2017). Türk kalkınma ve yatırım bankalarının aktif karlılığını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 50, 167-186. google scholar
- Kaya, F. (2017). Bankacılık: Giriş ve ilkeleri. Ankara: Beta Basım Yayım. google scholar
- Kepenek, Y. (2016). Türkiye ekonomisi. Ankara: Remzi Kitabevi. google scholar
- Koç, S., Bağcı, A. & Işık, K. C. (2016). Kalkınma ve yatırım bankalarının performansları açısından değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye ölçeği (2002-2012). Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(1), 227-256. google scholar
- Koenker, R. (2004). Quantile regression for longitudinal data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91(1), 74-89. google scholar
- Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile regression. New York: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
- Koenker, R. & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50. google scholar
- Konuralp, G. (2005). Sermaye piyasaları: Analizler, kuramlar ve portföy yönetimi. Ankara: Alfa Yayınevi. google scholar
- Mendez, A. & Houghton, D. P. (2020). Sustainable banking: The role of multilateral development banks as norm entrepreneurs. Sustainability, 12(3), 972. google scholar
- Newey, W. K. & Powell, J. L. (1987). Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(4), 819-847. google scholar
- Ozturk, H., Gültekin-Karakaş, D. & Hisarciklilar, M. (2010). The role of development banking in promoting industrialization in Türkiye. Region et Developpement, 32, 153-178. google scholar
- Parasız, I. (2014). Modern bankacılık: Teori ve uygulama. Ankara: Ezgi Kitabevi. google scholar
- Parente, P. M. D. C. & Silva, J. M. C. S. (2016). Quantile regression with clustered data. Journal of Econometric Methods, 5(1), 1-15. google scholar
- Powell, D. (2014). Did the economic stimulus payments of 2008 reduce labor supply? Evidence from quantile panel data estimation. RAND Labor and Population Working Paper 710-713. google scholar
- Powell, D. (2016). Quantile regression with nonadditive fixed effects. RAND Labor and Population Working Paper Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b2be/fdf37fa0d1faa88675 e085e54584c4072e4a.pdf. google scholar
- Powell, D. (2017). Quantile treatment effects in the presence of covariates. RAND Labor and Population Working Paper. Available online: https://works.bepress.com/david_powell/4/ download/. google scholar
- Radic, N., Fiordelisi, F. & Girardone, C. (2012). Efficiency and risk-taking in pre-crisis investment banks. Journal of Financial Services Research, 41, 81-101. google scholar
- Skidelsky, R. (2020). Economic recovery in the age of COVID-19. Intereconomics, 55(6) 345-349. google scholar
- Terzi, N. (2017). Küresel finansta güncel konular. Ankara: Beta Basım Yayım. google scholar
- Thorne, J. & du Toit, C. (2009). A macro-framework for successful development banks. Development Southern Africa, 26(5), 677-694. google scholar
- Tukey, J. W. (1965). The future of processes of data analysis. Reprinted in: Jones, L.V. (ed.) 1986. The Collected Works of John W. Tukey. Volume IV: Philosophy and Principles of Data Analysis: 1965-1986. Monterey, CA: Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole, 517-547. google scholar
- Tukey, J. W. (1972). Some graphic and semigraphic displays. In: Bancroft, T. A. and Brown, S. A. (eds.), Statistical Papers in Honor of George W. Snedecor, Ames: Iowa State University Press. google scholar
- Uzunoglu, S. (2020). Bankacılığa giriş. Ankara: Literatür Yayınları. google scholar
- Wainer, H. (1974). The suspended rootogram and other visual displays: An empirical validation. The American Statistician, 28(4), 143-145. google scholar
- Wang, H. (2017). New multilateral development banks: Opportunities and challenges for global governance. Global Policy, 8(1), 113-118. google scholar
- Wojcik, D. & loannou, S. (2020). COVID-19 and finance: Market developments so far and potential impacts on the financial sector and centres. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, 111(3), 387-400. google scholar
- Yay, G. G. (2015). Para ve finans: Teori - politika. İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi University Press. google scholar
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | İşletme |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Haziran 2022 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 9 Şubat 2022 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2022 Cilt: 72 Sayı: 1 |
