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Enflasyon ve İşçi Transferleri arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 36 Sayı: 2, 399 - 407, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202136210

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı işçi transferleri ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye için ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla 1987-2019 dönemi ele alınmış ve Johansen yaklaşımı, FMOLS yöntemi ve Hacker-Hatemi (2006) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Johansen testi sonucuna göre, değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişki bulunmaktadır. FMOLS analizi bulguları ise, teoride beklenildiği gibi işçi transferlerinin enflasyonu artırdığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, dış borçların enflasyon üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu ancak dışa açıklık oranının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Hacker-Hatemi (2006) testi sonucu ise, işçi transferlerinden enflasyona doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Alper, A. M. (2005). İşçi Dövizlerini Belirleyen Makro Ekonomik Etkenler: Türkiye Örneği. Central Bank of Turkey, http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/kutuphane/TURKCE/tezler/ahmetmuratalper.pdf.
  • Aydaş, O., Neyapti, B. ve Metin‐Özcan, K. (2004). Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: The Case of Turkey. Working Paper, Bilkent University.
  • Ball, C., Lopez, C. ve Reyes, J. (2012). Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies. MPRA Paper, No. 39852.
  • Beine, M., Lodigiani, E. ve Vermeulen, R.(2012). Remittances and Financial Openness. Regional Science & Urban Economics, 42, 844–857.
  • Cáceres, L. R. ve Saca, N. N. (2006). What Do Remittances Do? Analyzing the Private Remittance Transmission Mechanism in El Salvador.International Monetary Fund, No. 06(250).
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (366), 427-431.
  • Durand, J., Kandel, W., Parrado, E.A. ve Massey, D.S. (1996). International Migration and Development in Mexican Communities. Demography, 33(2), 249–264.
  • Elbadawi, I. A. ve Rocha, R.R. (1992). Determinants of Expatriate Workers’ Remittances in North Africa and Europe. World Bank Working Paper Series, No. 1038.
  • Ganeshamoorthy, K. (2019). Remittances as a Determinant of Import Function: A time Series Analysis. International Journal of Commerce & Economics, 1(2), 15-21.
  • Ghauri, S.P., Ahmed, R.R., Veinhardt, J., Streimikiene, D. ve Qureshi, K.S. (2019). The Effects of Remıttances on Inflatıon (CPI and WPI) and Exchange Rate: A Case of Pakıstan.
  • Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting – XXII (2) 2019, 146-165.
  • Giuliano, P. ve Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2009). Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 90(1), 144-152.
  • Gupta, S., Pattillo, C.A. ve Wagh, S. (2009). Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 37(1), 104–115.
  • Hacker, R. S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
  • Haderi, S., Papapanagos, H., Sanfey, P. ve Talka, M. (1999). Inflation and Stabilisation in Albania. Post-Communist Economies, 11(1), 127-141.
  • Hansen, B.E. ve Phillips, P.C.B. (1990). Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study. Advances in Econometrics, 8, 225-248.
  • Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M. ve Javed, A. (2013). The Nexus between Foreign Remittances and Inflation: Evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS), 33(2), 331-342.
  • Khan, Z. S. ve Islam, S. (2013). The Effects of Remittances on Inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Economics & Business Research, 19(2), 198-208.
  • Koechlin, V. ve Leon, G. (2007). International Remittances and Income Inequality: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 10(2), 123-141.
  • Khurshid, A., Kedong, Y., Calin, A. C. ve Popovici, O. C. (2016). Do Remittances Hurt Domestic Prices? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, XIX (4), 95-114.
  • Lopez, H., Molina, L. ve Bussolo, M. (2007). Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS.
  • Narayan, P., Narayan, S. ve Mishra, S. (2011). Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries. Southern Economic Journal, 77(4), 914-933.
  • Nisar, A. ve Tufail, S. (2013). An Analysis of Relationship between Remittances and Inflation in Pakistan. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 16(2), 19–38.
  • Nyamongo, E. M., Misati, R. N., Kipyegon, L. ve Ndirangu, L. (2012). Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Africa. Journal of Economic & Business, 64(3), 240-260.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346.
  • Rivera, J. P. R. ve Tullao, T. S. J. (2020). Investigating the Link between Remittances and İnflation: Evidence from the Philippines. South East Asia Research, 28(3), 301-326.
  • Roy, R. ve Rahman, M. M., (2014). An Empirical Analysis of Remittances- Inflation Relationship in Bangladesh: Post-Floating Exchange Rate Scenario. MPRA Paper, No. 55190.
  • Straubhaar, T. ve Vadean, F.P. (2006). International Migrant Remittances and their Role in Development, Part III. International Migration Outlook: Sopemi 2006 Edition, 139:161.
  • Termos, A., Naufal, G. ve Genc, I. (2013). Remittance Outflows and Inflation: The Case of the GCC Countries. Economic Letters, 120(1), 45-47.
  • Tung, L.T., Pham, T., Nhu, P.T.Q., Thanh, P.T., Anh, L.T. ve Phung, T.T.P. (2015). The Impact of Remittance Inflows on Inflation: Evidence in Asian and The Pacific Developing Countries. :1-8.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/297360908_The_impact_of_remittance_inflows_on_inflation_Evidence_in_asian_and_the_pacific_developing_countries/link/5b03862da6fdccf9e4f778bc/download.
  • Upadhyay, M. P. ve Upadhyaya, K. (2011). Effects of Remittances on Inflation and Real Exchange Rate in South Asia. Himalayan Journal of Development and Democracy, 6, (1), 88-96.

The Causality Relationship between Inflation and Worker Remittances: Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 36 Sayı: 2, 399 - 407, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202136210

Öz

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the worker remittances and inflation for Turkey over the period 1987-2019. To this aim, Johansen approach, FMOLS method and Hacker-Hatemi (2006) causality test are used. According to the results of Johansen test, there is cointegration between the variables. The results of the analysis of FMOLS implied that remittance inflows significantly increase inflation as expected in theory. It is also found that external debt have pozitif effect on inflation while the variable openness is statistically insignificant. The results of the Hacker-Hatemi (2006) causality test displayed the existence of unidirectional causality running from worker remittance to inflation.

Kaynakça

  • Alper, A. M. (2005). İşçi Dövizlerini Belirleyen Makro Ekonomik Etkenler: Türkiye Örneği. Central Bank of Turkey, http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/kutuphane/TURKCE/tezler/ahmetmuratalper.pdf.
  • Aydaş, O., Neyapti, B. ve Metin‐Özcan, K. (2004). Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: The Case of Turkey. Working Paper, Bilkent University.
  • Ball, C., Lopez, C. ve Reyes, J. (2012). Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies. MPRA Paper, No. 39852.
  • Beine, M., Lodigiani, E. ve Vermeulen, R.(2012). Remittances and Financial Openness. Regional Science & Urban Economics, 42, 844–857.
  • Cáceres, L. R. ve Saca, N. N. (2006). What Do Remittances Do? Analyzing the Private Remittance Transmission Mechanism in El Salvador.International Monetary Fund, No. 06(250).
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (366), 427-431.
  • Durand, J., Kandel, W., Parrado, E.A. ve Massey, D.S. (1996). International Migration and Development in Mexican Communities. Demography, 33(2), 249–264.
  • Elbadawi, I. A. ve Rocha, R.R. (1992). Determinants of Expatriate Workers’ Remittances in North Africa and Europe. World Bank Working Paper Series, No. 1038.
  • Ganeshamoorthy, K. (2019). Remittances as a Determinant of Import Function: A time Series Analysis. International Journal of Commerce & Economics, 1(2), 15-21.
  • Ghauri, S.P., Ahmed, R.R., Veinhardt, J., Streimikiene, D. ve Qureshi, K.S. (2019). The Effects of Remıttances on Inflatıon (CPI and WPI) and Exchange Rate: A Case of Pakıstan.
  • Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting – XXII (2) 2019, 146-165.
  • Giuliano, P. ve Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2009). Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 90(1), 144-152.
  • Gupta, S., Pattillo, C.A. ve Wagh, S. (2009). Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 37(1), 104–115.
  • Hacker, R. S. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
  • Haderi, S., Papapanagos, H., Sanfey, P. ve Talka, M. (1999). Inflation and Stabilisation in Albania. Post-Communist Economies, 11(1), 127-141.
  • Hansen, B.E. ve Phillips, P.C.B. (1990). Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study. Advances in Econometrics, 8, 225-248.
  • Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M. ve Javed, A. (2013). The Nexus between Foreign Remittances and Inflation: Evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS), 33(2), 331-342.
  • Khan, Z. S. ve Islam, S. (2013). The Effects of Remittances on Inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Economics & Business Research, 19(2), 198-208.
  • Koechlin, V. ve Leon, G. (2007). International Remittances and Income Inequality: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 10(2), 123-141.
  • Khurshid, A., Kedong, Y., Calin, A. C. ve Popovici, O. C. (2016). Do Remittances Hurt Domestic Prices? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, XIX (4), 95-114.
  • Lopez, H., Molina, L. ve Bussolo, M. (2007). Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS.
  • Narayan, P., Narayan, S. ve Mishra, S. (2011). Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries. Southern Economic Journal, 77(4), 914-933.
  • Nisar, A. ve Tufail, S. (2013). An Analysis of Relationship between Remittances and Inflation in Pakistan. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 16(2), 19–38.
  • Nyamongo, E. M., Misati, R. N., Kipyegon, L. ve Ndirangu, L. (2012). Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Africa. Journal of Economic & Business, 64(3), 240-260.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346.
  • Rivera, J. P. R. ve Tullao, T. S. J. (2020). Investigating the Link between Remittances and İnflation: Evidence from the Philippines. South East Asia Research, 28(3), 301-326.
  • Roy, R. ve Rahman, M. M., (2014). An Empirical Analysis of Remittances- Inflation Relationship in Bangladesh: Post-Floating Exchange Rate Scenario. MPRA Paper, No. 55190.
  • Straubhaar, T. ve Vadean, F.P. (2006). International Migrant Remittances and their Role in Development, Part III. International Migration Outlook: Sopemi 2006 Edition, 139:161.
  • Termos, A., Naufal, G. ve Genc, I. (2013). Remittance Outflows and Inflation: The Case of the GCC Countries. Economic Letters, 120(1), 45-47.
  • Tung, L.T., Pham, T., Nhu, P.T.Q., Thanh, P.T., Anh, L.T. ve Phung, T.T.P. (2015). The Impact of Remittance Inflows on Inflation: Evidence in Asian and The Pacific Developing Countries. :1-8.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/297360908_The_impact_of_remittance_inflows_on_inflation_Evidence_in_asian_and_the_pacific_developing_countries/link/5b03862da6fdccf9e4f778bc/download.
  • Upadhyay, M. P. ve Upadhyaya, K. (2011). Effects of Remittances on Inflation and Real Exchange Rate in South Asia. Himalayan Journal of Development and Democracy, 6, (1), 88-96.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ayşe Arı 0000-0002-8485-5932

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Eylül 2020
Kabul Tarihi 29 Temmuz 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 36 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Arı, A. (2021). Enflasyon ve İşçi Transferleri arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 36(2), 399-407. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202136210

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İZMİR İKTİSAT DERGİSİ 2022 yılı 37. cilt 1. sayı ile birlikte sadece elektronik olarak yayınlanmaya başlamıştır.