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The Importance of Geopolitical Risk and Corruption for Foreign Direct Investments: Empirial Findings for Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 257 - 286, 30.12.2022

Şerife Özşahin Gülbahar Üçler Doğan Uysal

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1120293
Cited By: 2

Öz

Foreign direct ivestment (FDI) is an essential source of capital for underdeveloped and developing countries with its positive effects on employment, technological knowledge diffusion, capital accumulation, integration into international markets, and economic growth. In addition to economic and social characteristics, institutional factors such as country risk, corruption and geopolitical risk are also noteworthy in foreign investors' country preference. According to the Kearney’s FDI Confidence Index Report (2022), the most likely risks for investors in recent years are political instability and geopolitical risks. UNCTAD (2017) report states that geopolitical risks, which are on the list of international investment threats, will have negative consequences on FDI due to their effects that reduce international cooperation. This study aims to determine the effects of geopolitical risks and control of corruption on foreign direct investments in Turkey, which is located in the geography where geopolitical risk is high. In the analysis conducted for the period 2003.Q1-2020.Q4, the Geopolitical Risk Index created by Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) and the control of corruption index, which is a country-specific institutional risk indicator, were used. According to the findings obtained by using the ARDL method, it is observed that while the control of corruption and real gross domestic product affect foreign direct investment inflows positively, geopolitical risk and inflation have a reducing effect on foreign investments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign direct investment geopolitical risk corruption Turkey

Kaynakça

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  • Adel, S., Triki, M. B., & Abderzag, F. T. (2021). Does geopolitical risk and investors' sentiment matter for Turkish stock returns? Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 42(1), 1-30.
  • Afşar, M., Doğan, E., & Doğan, B. Ö. (2022). Does higher geopolitical risk limits Turkish foreign direct investments? Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 1456-1475.
  • Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273-277.
  • Akdağ, S., Yıldırım, H., & Kesebir, M. (2019). Jeopolitik risk ile borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişki: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizi. Siyasi. İnanır, E., Köse, O., Ulutürk, Y. (Eds.). Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Türkiye ve Rusya, , 59–74), Berikan Yayınevi: Ankara.
  • Alemu, A. M. (2012). Effects of corruption on FDI inflow in Asian economies. Seoul Journal of Economics, 25(4), 387-412.
  • Apergis, N., Bonato, M., Gupta, R., & Kyei, C. (2018). Does geopolitical risks predict stock returns and volatility of leading defense companies? Evidence from a nonparametric approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 29(6), 684-696.
  • Arin, K.P., Ciferri, D. & Spagnolo, N. (2008), The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility. Economics Letters, 101(3), 164–167.
  • Arslan, C.K. (2019). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(6), 477-485.
  • Aysan, A., Demir, E., Gözgör, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2019), Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 511-518.
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., & Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, 615-625.
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  • Bénassy‐Quéré, A., Coupet, M., & Mayer, T. (2007). Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment. World Economy, 30(5), 764-782.
  • Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Roblez, B. (2003). Foreign direct ınvestment, economic freedom and growth: New evidence from Latin America. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 529–545.
  • Blomström, M., & Kokko A. (2003). The economics of foreign direct investment incentives. Working Paper No. 9489, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?. Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135.
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  • Buzdağlı, Ö., & Özdemir, D. (2021). Jeopolitik risk endeksinin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 12(29), 188-203.
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  • Canning ve Pedroni (2008). Infrastructure, long-run economic growth and causality tests for cointegrated panels. The Manchester School, 76(5), 504–527.
  • Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investment: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regression. Kyklos, 54(1), 89-114.
  • Challe, E., Lopez, J., & Mengus, E. (2019). Institutional quality and capital inflows: Theory and evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 96, 168–191.
  • Chen, F., & Jiang, G. (2021). Investigating the Impact of Institutional Quality on FDI: Are There Promotional Effects in Economic Integration Regions? Sustainability, 13, 11309.
  • Dedeoğlu, D., Öğüt, K., & Pişkin, A. (2019). Yönetişim kalitesi, jeopolitik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler örneği. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 56(650), 51-69.
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Jeopolitik Risk ve Yolsuzluğun Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar için Önemi: Türkiye için Ampirik Bulgular

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 257 - 286, 30.12.2022

Şerife Özşahin Gülbahar Üçler Doğan Uysal

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1120293
Cited By: 2

Öz

Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY); istihdam, teknolojik bilgi yayılımı, sermaye birikimi, uluslararası bütünleşme ve iktisadi büyüme üzerine olumlu etkileri ile azgelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için önemli bir finansal kaynaktır. Ekonomik ve sosyal özelliklerin yanı sıra ülke riski, yolsuzluk, jeopolitik risk gibi kurumsal faktörler de yabancı yatırımcıların ülke tercihinde önemlidir. Kearney (2022) Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Güven Endeksi raporuna göre, yatırımcılar için son yıllardaki en olası riskler, siyasi istikrarsızlık ve jeopolitik risklerdir. UNCTAD (2017) raporunda uluslararası yatırım tehditleri listesine giren jeopolitik risklerin uluslararası iş birliğini azaltan etkileri nedeniyle DYY üzerinde olumsuz sonuçlar yaratacağı ifade edilmektedir. Bu çalışma, jeopolitik riskin yoğun olduğu bir coğrafyada bulunan Türkiye’de jeopolitik riskler ve yolsuzluğun DYY üzerine etkisini tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 2003.Q1-2020.Q4 dönemi için yapılan analizde, Caldara ve Iacoviello (2019) jeopolitik risk endeksi ve ülkeye özgü kurumsal bir risk göstergesi olan yolsuzluğun kontrolü endeksi kullanılmıştır. ARDL yöntemi ile elde edilen bulgulara göre, yolsuzluğun kontrolü ve reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, DYY girişlerini olumlu yönde etkilerken jeopolitik risk ve enflasyonun yabancı yatırımları azaltıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

doğrudan yabancı yatırım jeopolitik risk yolsuzluk ARDL Türkiye

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, Ş., & Mert, M. (2014). Sources of growth revisited: The importance of the nature of technological progress. Journal of Applied Economics, 17(1), 31-62.
  • Adel, S., Triki, M. B., & Abderzag, F. T. (2021). Does geopolitical risk and investors' sentiment matter for Turkish stock returns? Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 42(1), 1-30.
  • Afşar, M., Doğan, E., & Doğan, B. Ö. (2022). Does higher geopolitical risk limits Turkish foreign direct investments? Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 1456-1475.
  • Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273-277.
  • Akdağ, S., Yıldırım, H., & Kesebir, M. (2019). Jeopolitik risk ile borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişki: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizi. Siyasi. İnanır, E., Köse, O., Ulutürk, Y. (Eds.). Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Türkiye ve Rusya, , 59–74), Berikan Yayınevi: Ankara.
  • Alemu, A. M. (2012). Effects of corruption on FDI inflow in Asian economies. Seoul Journal of Economics, 25(4), 387-412.
  • Apergis, N., Bonato, M., Gupta, R., & Kyei, C. (2018). Does geopolitical risks predict stock returns and volatility of leading defense companies? Evidence from a nonparametric approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 29(6), 684-696.
  • Arin, K.P., Ciferri, D. & Spagnolo, N. (2008), The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility. Economics Letters, 101(3), 164–167.
  • Arslan, C.K. (2019). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(6), 477-485.
  • Aysan, A., Demir, E., Gözgör, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2019), Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 511-518.
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., & Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, 615-625.
  • Barassi, M.R., & Zhou, Y. (2012). The effect of corruption on FDI: A parametric and non-parametric analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 28.3, 302-312.
  • Bénassy‐Quéré, A., Coupet, M., & Mayer, T. (2007). Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment. World Economy, 30(5), 764-782.
  • Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Roblez, B. (2003). Foreign direct ınvestment, economic freedom and growth: New evidence from Latin America. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 529–545.
  • Blomström, M., & Kokko A. (2003). The economics of foreign direct investment incentives. Working Paper No. 9489, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?. Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135.
  • Bouri, E., Cepni, O., Gupta, R., & Jalkh, N. (2020). Geopolitical risks and stock market volatility in the G7 countries: A century of evidence from a time-varying nonparametric panel data model (No. 202029).
  • Buzdağlı, Ö., & Özdemir, D. (2021). Jeopolitik risk endeksinin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 12(29), 188-203.
  • Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2019). Measuring geopolitical risk, Working Paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board.
  • Canning ve Pedroni (2008). Infrastructure, long-run economic growth and causality tests for cointegrated panels. The Manchester School, 76(5), 504–527.
  • Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investment: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regression. Kyklos, 54(1), 89-114.
  • Challe, E., Lopez, J., & Mengus, E. (2019). Institutional quality and capital inflows: Theory and evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 96, 168–191.
  • Chen, F., & Jiang, G. (2021). Investigating the Impact of Institutional Quality on FDI: Are There Promotional Effects in Economic Integration Regions? Sustainability, 13, 11309.
  • Dedeoğlu, D., Öğüt, K., & Pişkin, A. (2019). Yönetişim kalitesi, jeopolitik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler örneği. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 56(650), 51-69.
  • Demirtaş, G., & Akçay, S. (2006). Kurumsal faktörlerin doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlar üzerine etkisi: Bir ampirik bir kanıt. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8 (2), 15-33.
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with unitroot. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  • Doğan, E., & Afşar, A. (2021). Politik ve jeopolitik riskler hisse senedi piyasalarını nasıl etkiler: yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 16(3), 688-704.
  • Durgan, S. (2016). Türkiye’nin doğrudan yabancı yatırım potansiyelinin çekim modeli kullanılarak belirlenmesi. Kalkınma Bakanlığı Ekonomik Modeller ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü Uzmanlık Tezi, Yayın No: 2954.
  • Engle, R. F., & Grager, C.W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error–correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Fania, N., Yan, C., Kuyon, J. B., & Djeri, S. (2020). Geopolitical risks (GPRs) and foreign direct investments: A business risk approach. Global Journal of Management and Business Research.
  • Feldstein, M. (2000). Aspects of Global Economic Integration: Outlook for the Future. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 7899.
  • Güngör, H., Çiftçioğlu, S., & Balcılar, M. (2014). Does financial development increase private savings? The case of Turkey. International Journal of Business and SocialScience, 5(2), 36-47.
  • Hakimi, A., & Hamdi, H. (2017). Does corruption limit FDI and economic growth? Evidence from MENA countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(3), 550-571.
  • Heriot, K. C., Thesis, J., & Campbell, N.D. (2008). Foreign direct investment and economic freedom: An empirical investigation. Columbus State University and University of Central Arkansas.
  • Hoque, M. E., & Zaidi, M. A. S. (2020). Global and country-specific geopolitical risk uncertainty and stock return of fragile emerging economies. Borsa Istanbul Review, 20(3), 197-213.
  • Jensen, N., & Mc Gillivray, F. (2005). Federal institutions and multinational investors: federalism, government credibility, and foreign direct investment. International Interactions, 31(4), 303-325.
  • Jimenez, A., Lee, Jeoung, Y., & Ordeñana, X. (2021). Introduction: FDI and Institutional Quality: New Insights and Future Perspectives from Emerging and Advanced Economies. Sustainability, 13, 4413.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Jung, S., Lee, J., & Lee, S. (2021). The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns: Evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics. IMF Working Papers, 2021(251).
  • Karim, B. A., Karim, Z. A., & Nasharuddin, M. N. (2018). Corruption and foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN-5: A panel evidence. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 64(2), 145-156.
  • Karolyi, G.A., & Martell, R. (2010), Terrorism and the stock market. International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics, 2(2), 285-314.
  • Kasasbeh, H. A., Mdanat, M. F., & Khasawneh, R. (2018). Corruption and FDI inflows: Evidence from a small developing economy. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(8), 1075-1085.
  • Kaufmann, D., Aart, K., & Massimo, M. (2010). The worldwide governance indicators: methodology and analytical issues. World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper No. 5430 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1682130).
  • Kearney (2022). Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index. Erişim adresi: https://www.kearney.com/foreign-direct-investment-confidence-index/2022-full-report
  • Khan, K., Su, C. W., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021). How do geopolitical risks affect oil prices and freight rates? Ocean & Coastal Management, 215, 105955.
  • Kollias, C., Papadamou, S., & Apostolos, S. (2011). Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 20(4), 532–541.
  • Kumari, R., & Sharma, A.K. (2017). Determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries: a panel data study. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(4), 658-682.
  • Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2020). Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS. Economic Modelling, 92, 207-215.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4):1082–1089.
  • Li, G., Lin, K., & Zheng, Y. (2019). Geopolitical Risk, Firm Balance Sheets, and Corporate Investment: International Evidence (April 15, 2019). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3381315
  • Loungani, P., & Razin, A. (2001). How beneficial is foreign direct investment for developing countries? Finance & Development, 38(2), 6-9.
  • Luu, H. N., Nguyen, N. M., Ho, H. H., & Nam, V. H. (2018). The effect of corruption on FDI and its modes of entry. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 11(2), 232-250.
  • Nguyen, T. T. T., Pham, B. T., & Sala, H. (2022). Being an emerging economy: To what extent do geopolitical risks hamper technology and FDI inflows? Economic Analysis and Policy, 74, 728-746.
  • OECD (2002). Foreign Direct Investment for Development: Maximising Benefits, Minimising Costs. https://www.oecd.org/investment/investmentfordevelopment/1959815.pdf
  • Özcan, B., & Arı, A. (2010). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicileri üzerine bir analiz: OECD örneği. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, 0(12), 65-88.
  • Özşahin, M. C., & Özşahin, Ş. (2020). The nexus between political risks and foreign direct investment: An empirical analysis for north African countries. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(4), 2431-2447.
  • Özşahin, Ş. (2016). Kurumsal kalite doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar için ne kadar önemli? Türkiye için ekonometrik bir analiz. Journal of Yaşar University, 11(44), 251-262.
  • Pehlivanoğlu, F., Akdağ, S., & Alola, A. A. (2021). The causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies. Quality & Quantity, 55(4), 1261-1273.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis. In Strom, S. (Ed.): Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 371–413, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. & Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration. Econometrica, 58(1), 165-193.
  • Phillips, P.C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
  • PwC (2018). PwC Global: The Anxious Optimist in the Corner Office: PwC's 21st CEO survey January 2018. Erişim adresi: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2018/pwc-ceo-survey-report-2018.pdf
  • Root, F., & Ahmet, A. (1979). Empirical determinants of manufacturing direct foreign investment in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 27, 751-767.
  • Sekkat, K., & Véganzonès-Varoudakis, M.A. (2004). Trade and foreign exchange liberalization, investment climateand FDI in the MENA countries. Middle East and North Africa WorkingPaper Series, No: 39.
  • Soltani, H., Triki, M. B., Ghandri, M., & Abderzag, F. T. (2021). Does geopolitical risk and financial development matter for economic growth in MENA countries? Journal of International Studies, 14(1), 103-116.
  • Şahin, E. E., & Arslan, H. (2021). An analysis of the effects of geopolitical risks on stock returns and exchange rates using a nonparametric method. Journal of Accounting & Finance, 89, 237-250.
  • Şahinoğlu, T. & Mortazavimoulou, M. (2017), Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasi belirleyicileri. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(50), 145-164.
  • Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75, 323-327.
  • UNCTAD (2017). World Investment Report 2017. Investment and the Digital Economy. UNCTAD/WIR/2017. Erişim adresi: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2017_en.pdf
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  • Üçler, G., & Özşahin, Ş. (2020). Jeopolitik risk ve borsa endeksinin nedensellik analizi: gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bootstrap panel nedensellik testi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (87), 167-180.
  • Wang, W., & Yang, F. (2018). The shale revolution, geopolitical risk, and oil price volatility. Geopolitical Risk, and Oil Price Volatility (August 30, 2018). https://ssrn.com/abstract =3241692
  • World Economic Forum (2021). The Global Risks Report 2021, 16th Edition. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2021.pdf
Toplam 78 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şerife Özşahin 0000-0001-8310-1816

Gülbahar Üçler 0000-0002-5872-8577

Doğan Uysal

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 23 Mayıs 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G., & Uysal, D. (2022). Jeopolitik Risk ve Yolsuzluğun Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar için Önemi: Türkiye için Ampirik Bulgular. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 257-286. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1120293

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