Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Validity of Wagner’s Law: Evidence from Across the World in 1992-2021

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 29.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1261104

Öz

This paper aims to analyze the validity of Wagner's Law for the period 1992-2021 in 83 countries by using Gengenbach, Urbain, and Westerlund (2016) panel cointegration and Augmented Mean Group Estimator (AMG) coefficient estimator methods. The paper uses per capita income and human development index to analyze the validity of Wagner's Law. The Results of the analysis indicate that Wagner's Law is valid in 26 of 86 countries. In 9 of these countries, the Wagner Law is valid both in terms of per capita income and human development index.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasov, J. A. & Aliyev, K. (2018). Testing wagner’s law and keynesian hypothesis in selected post soviet countries. Acta Universitatis
  • Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 66(5), 1227-1237.
  • Afonso, A. & Alves, J. (2016). Reconsidering wagner's law: evidence from the functions of the government, Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Ahuja, D. & Pandit, D. (2020). Public expenditure and economic growth: evidence from the developing countries. FIIB Business Review, 9(3), 228- 236. https://doi.org/10.1177/ 2319714520938901
  • Balaban, S. & Živkov, D. (2021). Validity of Wagner’s law in transition economies: a multivariate approach, Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics, 236-(1/2021), 105-131.
  • Borooah, V.K. (1992). Public Choice: An Introductory Survey, 1st Edition, Current Issues in Public Sector Economics, Ed. by: Jackson, P. M., New York: Macmillan Education, 132-155.
  • Cameron, D. R. (1978). The expansion of the public economy: a comparative analysis, The American Political Science Review, 72, 1243-1261.
  • Chang, T. (2002). An econometric test of Wagner’s law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Applied Economics, 34(9), 1157–1169. doi:10.1080/00036840110074132
  • Courakis, A. S., Moura-Roque, F., & Tridimas, G. (1993). Public expenditure growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner’s law and beyond. Applied Economics, 25(1), 125–134. doi:10.1080/00036849300000121
  • Durevall, D., & Henrekson, M. (2011). The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure. Journal of Public Economics, 95(7-8), 708–722.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J.-P., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982–1004, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2475.
  • Günay, E. K. & Aygün, B. (2022). The ımpact of economic growth on government expenditures in sub-saharan african countries: a panel data analysis for Wagner’s Law and keynesian approach, Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 7(1), 297-304.
  • IMF (2022). Public finance in modern history. https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/exp@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/GBR/SWE/ESP/ITA/ZAF/IND, (11.12.2022 tarihinde erişildi.)
  • Inchauspe, J., Kobir, M. A., & MacDonald, G. (2020). Wagner’s law and the dynamics of government spending in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 1–22. doi:10.1080/00074918.2020.1811837
  • Keho, Y. (2015). Revisiting Wagner's law for selected african countries : a frequency domain causality analysis. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 4(4), 55– 69.
  • Kolapo, F. T., Azeez, B., Joseph, M., Oluwaleye, T. O. & Alabi, K. M. (2021). Impact of government expenditure on economic growth in sub-saharan africa: a validity of wagner’s law, International Journal of Scientific Research and Management, 9(2), 2139-2150.
  • Kolluri, B. R., Panik, M. J., & Wahab, M. S. (2000). Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries. Applied Economics, 32(8), 1059–1068. doi:10.1080/000368400322110
  • Kuckuck, J. (2014). Testing wagner’s law at different stages of economic development, Public Finance Analysis, 70(1), 128–168. doi:10.1628/001522114x679183
  • Lamartina, S. & Zaghini, A. (2011), Increasing public expenditure: wagner's law in oecd countries. german economic review, 12, 149-164. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00517.x
  • Magazzino, C., Giolli, L. & Mele, M. (2015). Wagner’s law and peacock and wiseman’s displacement effect in european union countries: a panel data study, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3), 812-819.
  • Mohammadi, H., & Ram, R. (2015). Economic development and government spending: an exploration of wagner’s hypothesis during fifty years of growth in east asia, Economies, 3(4), 150–160. doi:10.3390/economies3040150
  • Musgrave, R. A. (1969). Fiscal Systems, New Haven and London, Yale University Press
  • Nusair, S. A., & Olson, D. O. (2020). Testing wagner’s law versus the keynesian hypothesis for gcc countries. Applied Economics, 53(12), 1395–1417. doi:10.1080/ 00036846.2020.1832196
  • Oxley, L. (1994). Cointegration, causality and wagner’s law: a test for Britian 1870–1913. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41(3), 286–298. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1994.tb01127.x
  • Öztaşkın, H. S. & Kara, S. B. (2022). Wagner's law vs. keynesian hypothesis: empirical evidence for g20 countries. Advances in Economics and Business, 10(2), 29 - 40. DOI: 10.13189/aeb.2022.100202
  • Peacock, A.T. & Wiseman, J. (1961). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Wagner’s hypothesis in time-series and cross-section perspectives: evidence from “real” data for 115 countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 194- 204.
  • Shelton, C. A. (2007). The size and composition of government expenditure, Journal of Public Economics, 91(11–12), 2230-2260.
  • Tesařová, Ž. (2020). The Wagner’s law testing in the Visegrád Four countries. Review of Economic Perspectives, 20(4), 409-430.
  • UNCTAD (2022). Data center. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/ reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en, (11.12.2022 tarihinde erişildi.)
  • UNDP (2022). What is human development?, https://hdr.undp.org/about/human-development (11.12.2022 tarihinde erişildi.)
  • Urfalıoğlu, Şeyda & Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2022). Wagner hipotezinin oecd ülkelerinde geçerliliği: kónya panel nedensellik testi. Uygulamalı Ve Teorik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(3), 229-246. https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2022.64
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (Stata Uygulamalı),İstanbul: Beta

Wagner Kanunu’nun Geçerliliği: 1992-2021 Dönemi İçin Dünya’dan Kanıtlar

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 29.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1261104

Öz

Bu çalışmada Wagner Kanunu’nun geçerliliği, 83 ülke ve 1992-2021 dönemi için araştırılmaktadır. Ayrıca çalışma, Wagner Kanunu’nu kişi başı milli gelirin yanı sıra onu da kapsayan bir gösterge olan insani gelişme endeksi üzerinden test etmektedir. Gengenbach, Urbain ve Westerlund (2016) ve Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre; Wagner Kanunu, 86 ülkesinin 26’sında geçerlidir. Bu ülkelerden 9’unda ise Wagner Kanunu hem kişi başı milli gelire hem de insani gelişme endeksine göre geçerlidir.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasov, J. A. & Aliyev, K. (2018). Testing wagner’s law and keynesian hypothesis in selected post soviet countries. Acta Universitatis
  • Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 66(5), 1227-1237.
  • Afonso, A. & Alves, J. (2016). Reconsidering wagner's law: evidence from the functions of the government, Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Ahuja, D. & Pandit, D. (2020). Public expenditure and economic growth: evidence from the developing countries. FIIB Business Review, 9(3), 228- 236. https://doi.org/10.1177/ 2319714520938901
  • Balaban, S. & Živkov, D. (2021). Validity of Wagner’s law in transition economies: a multivariate approach, Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics, 236-(1/2021), 105-131.
  • Borooah, V.K. (1992). Public Choice: An Introductory Survey, 1st Edition, Current Issues in Public Sector Economics, Ed. by: Jackson, P. M., New York: Macmillan Education, 132-155.
  • Cameron, D. R. (1978). The expansion of the public economy: a comparative analysis, The American Political Science Review, 72, 1243-1261.
  • Chang, T. (2002). An econometric test of Wagner’s law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Applied Economics, 34(9), 1157–1169. doi:10.1080/00036840110074132
  • Courakis, A. S., Moura-Roque, F., & Tridimas, G. (1993). Public expenditure growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner’s law and beyond. Applied Economics, 25(1), 125–134. doi:10.1080/00036849300000121
  • Durevall, D., & Henrekson, M. (2011). The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure. Journal of Public Economics, 95(7-8), 708–722.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J.-P., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982–1004, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2475.
  • Günay, E. K. & Aygün, B. (2022). The ımpact of economic growth on government expenditures in sub-saharan african countries: a panel data analysis for Wagner’s Law and keynesian approach, Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 7(1), 297-304.
  • IMF (2022). Public finance in modern history. https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/exp@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/GBR/SWE/ESP/ITA/ZAF/IND, (11.12.2022 tarihinde erişildi.)
  • Inchauspe, J., Kobir, M. A., & MacDonald, G. (2020). Wagner’s law and the dynamics of government spending in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 1–22. doi:10.1080/00074918.2020.1811837
  • Keho, Y. (2015). Revisiting Wagner's law for selected african countries : a frequency domain causality analysis. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 4(4), 55– 69.
  • Kolapo, F. T., Azeez, B., Joseph, M., Oluwaleye, T. O. & Alabi, K. M. (2021). Impact of government expenditure on economic growth in sub-saharan africa: a validity of wagner’s law, International Journal of Scientific Research and Management, 9(2), 2139-2150.
  • Kolluri, B. R., Panik, M. J., & Wahab, M. S. (2000). Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries. Applied Economics, 32(8), 1059–1068. doi:10.1080/000368400322110
  • Kuckuck, J. (2014). Testing wagner’s law at different stages of economic development, Public Finance Analysis, 70(1), 128–168. doi:10.1628/001522114x679183
  • Lamartina, S. & Zaghini, A. (2011), Increasing public expenditure: wagner's law in oecd countries. german economic review, 12, 149-164. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00517.x
  • Magazzino, C., Giolli, L. & Mele, M. (2015). Wagner’s law and peacock and wiseman’s displacement effect in european union countries: a panel data study, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3), 812-819.
  • Mohammadi, H., & Ram, R. (2015). Economic development and government spending: an exploration of wagner’s hypothesis during fifty years of growth in east asia, Economies, 3(4), 150–160. doi:10.3390/economies3040150
  • Musgrave, R. A. (1969). Fiscal Systems, New Haven and London, Yale University Press
  • Nusair, S. A., & Olson, D. O. (2020). Testing wagner’s law versus the keynesian hypothesis for gcc countries. Applied Economics, 53(12), 1395–1417. doi:10.1080/ 00036846.2020.1832196
  • Oxley, L. (1994). Cointegration, causality and wagner’s law: a test for Britian 1870–1913. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41(3), 286–298. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1994.tb01127.x
  • Öztaşkın, H. S. & Kara, S. B. (2022). Wagner's law vs. keynesian hypothesis: empirical evidence for g20 countries. Advances in Economics and Business, 10(2), 29 - 40. DOI: 10.13189/aeb.2022.100202
  • Peacock, A.T. & Wiseman, J. (1961). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Wagner’s hypothesis in time-series and cross-section perspectives: evidence from “real” data for 115 countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 194- 204.
  • Shelton, C. A. (2007). The size and composition of government expenditure, Journal of Public Economics, 91(11–12), 2230-2260.
  • Tesařová, Ž. (2020). The Wagner’s law testing in the Visegrád Four countries. Review of Economic Perspectives, 20(4), 409-430.
  • UNCTAD (2022). Data center. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/ reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=en, (11.12.2022 tarihinde erişildi.)
  • UNDP (2022). What is human development?, https://hdr.undp.org/about/human-development (11.12.2022 tarihinde erişildi.)
  • Urfalıoğlu, Şeyda & Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2022). Wagner hipotezinin oecd ülkelerinde geçerliliği: kónya panel nedensellik testi. Uygulamalı Ve Teorik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(3), 229-246. https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2022.64
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (Stata Uygulamalı),İstanbul: Beta
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Kamu Ekonomisi, İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yasin Karadeniz 0000-0003-3087-3729

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Şubat 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Şubat 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Mart 2023
Kabul Tarihi 22 Ağustos 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Karadeniz, Y. (2024). Wagner Kanunu’nun Geçerliliği: 1992-2021 Dönemi İçin Dünya’dan Kanıtlar. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 9(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1261104