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Fon Biriktirim Sistemi ve Yaşlanma: Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Year 2022, Volume: 30 Issue: 53, 119 - 136, 29.07.2022
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06

Abstract

Dağıtım esaslı sosyal güvenlik sistemlerinin açıkları nedeniyle, 1990larda ve 2000lerin başlarında bir sosyal güvenlik reform dalgası ortaya çıktı. Sorunun altında yatan yaşlanma olgusuna, sosyal güvenliğin özelleştirilmesi ile çözüm sunulabileceği düşünüldü. Bu görüşe şüphe ile yaklaşan bazı akademisyenler özelleştirmenin yaşlanma sorununa çözüm olamayabileceğine işaret ettiler. Bu çalışma, yaşlanmanın özel birikim esaslı sosyal güvenlik sütunu üzerindeki etkisinin ampirik incelemesini yapmaktadır. Basit bir piyasa denge koşulu kullanılarak, yaşlanan nüfusun tasarruf oranları için iması 2000-2100 dönemi için 150’den fazla ülke örneğinde incelenmiştir. Buradan hareketle, yaşlanmanın birikim esaslı emeklilik sistemlerinde sürdürülemezlik yaratabileceği saptanmıştır. Etki özellikle Doğu ve Güney Avrupa ülkeleri ile Kore ve Japonya’da baskındır.

References

  • Altiparmakov, N. (2018), “Another look at causes and consequences of pension privatization reform reversals in Eastern Europe”, Journal of European Social Policy, 28(3), 224-241.
  • Arnberg, S. & M. Barslund (2013), “The Crowding-Out Effect of Mandatory Labour Market Pension Schemes on Private Savings: Evidence from Renters in Denmark”, Netspar Discussion Paper, No. 11/2013-054.
  • Attanasio, O. et al. (2000), “Saving, growth, and investment: A macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 182-21.
  • Barr, N. (1979), “Myths my grandpa taught me”, Three Banks Review, 124, 27-55.
  • Barr, N. (2002), “Reforming pensions: Myths, truths, and policy choices”, International Social Security Review, 55(2), 3-36.
  • Chetty, R. et al. (2014), “Active vs Passive Decisions and Crowd-Out in Retirement Savings Accounts: Evidence from Denmark”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(3), 1141-1219.
  • Corondao, J.L. et al. (2003), “Public Funds and Private Capital Markets: The Investment Practices and Performance of State and Local Pension Funds”, National Tax Journal, 56(3), 579-594.
  • Datz, G. & K. Dancsi (2013), “The politics of pension reform reversal: A comparative analysis of Hungary and Argentina”, East European Politics, 29(1), 83-100.
  • De Mesa, A.A. & C. Mesa-Lago (2006), “The Structural Pension Reform in Chile: Effects, Comparisons with Other Latin American Reforms, and Lessons”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 22(1), 149-167.
  • Deaton, A. (1992), Understanding Consumption, Oxford University Press.
  • Disney, R. (2000), “Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What are the Reform Options?”, The Economic Journal, 110(461), F1-F23.
  • Genakoplos, J. et al. (2000), “Would a Privatized Social Security System Really Pay a Higher Rate of Return?”, NBER Working Paper Series No 6713.
  • Iglesias, A. & R.J. Palacios (2000), “Managing public pension reserves - Part I: evidence from the international experience”, Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21311, The World Bank.
  • James, E. (1998), “New Models for Old-Age Security Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions”, World Bank Research Observer, 13(2), 271-301.
  • Jung, C.L. (2009), “A Political Economy of Pension Reform in Korea”, PhD Thesis, Department of Sociological Studies, The University of Sheffield.
  • Kotlikoff, L.J. (1995), “Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters”, NBER Working Paper Series No. 5330.
  • Lachowska, M. & M. Myck (2018), “The Effect of Public Pension Wealth on Saving and Expenditure”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(3), 284-308.
  • Loayzai, N. et al. (2000), “Saving in developing countries: An overview”, The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 393-414.
  • Lorca, M. (2021), “Effects of COVID-19 Early Release of Pension Funds: The Case of Chile”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 88(4), 903-936.
  • Louzek, M. (2014), “Pension reform in the Czech Republic after 2010”, Post-Communist Economies, 26(1), 89-102.
  • Messacar, D. (2015), “Do workplace pensions crowd out other retirement savings? Evidence from Canadian tax records”, Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series Catalogue No 11F0019M No. 371. Statistics Canada.
  • OECD (1998), Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Palacios, R. & M. Pallarès-Miralles (2000), “International Patterns of Pension Provision”, Social Protection Discussion Paper Series, No. 0009; World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Pension Policy International (2021), Chile’s president will sign into law third drawdown on pensions, <https://www.pensionpolicy.net/chiles-president-will-sign-into-law-third-drawdown-on-pensions/>, 28.04.2021.
  • Polakowski, M. & K. Hagemejer (2018), “Reversing pension privatization the case of Polish pension reform and re- reforms”, ILO Working Papers 995005392802676, International Labour Organization.
  • Roseveare, D. et al. (1996), “Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers (No. 168).
  • Samuelson, P.A. (1954), “The pure theory of public expenditure”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 36(4), 386-389.
  • Scholz, W. (2015), “Financing social security out of contributions: About origins, present discussions, and prospects of a success story”, International Social Security Review, 68(4), 3-24.
  • Sleebos, J. (2003), “Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responses”, OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers, No. 15, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Tokol, A. & Y. Alper (eds.) (2018), Sosyal Politika, Bursa: Dora Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • United Nations (2017), World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections (No. ESA/P/WP.250), New York.
  • Vaillancourt, F.F. et al. (2015), Compulsory Government Pensions vs Private Savings: The Effect of Previous Expansion to the Canada Pension Plan, Frasier Institute, Canada.
  • Wolf, I. & L.C. del Rio (2021), “Sustainability of funded pension schemes: A financial position perspective using options”, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(4), 111-119.
  • World Bank (1994), Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth, Washington D.C.: World Bank Group.
  • Yang, T. (2020), “The Effect of Workplace Pensions on Household Saving: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 87(1), 173-194.

Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation

Year 2022, Volume: 30 Issue: 53, 119 - 136, 29.07.2022
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06

Abstract

The social security reform wave in the 1990s and the early 2000s responded to the rising deficits of the public PAYG (pay-as-you-go) systems. Privatisation of social security was regarded as a cure for the population ageing problem believed to lie under the situation. Some academics were sceptic and argued that privatisation was not a remedy to the ageing problem. This paper empirically investigates the validity of this claim. Using a simple market equilibrium condition, the implications of the ageing population for saving rates are examined for more than 150 countries for the 2000 to 2100 period. It is found that ageing may cause unsustainability in funded pension systems. The impact is especially profound for southern and eastern European countries, Korea, and Japan.

References

  • Altiparmakov, N. (2018), “Another look at causes and consequences of pension privatization reform reversals in Eastern Europe”, Journal of European Social Policy, 28(3), 224-241.
  • Arnberg, S. & M. Barslund (2013), “The Crowding-Out Effect of Mandatory Labour Market Pension Schemes on Private Savings: Evidence from Renters in Denmark”, Netspar Discussion Paper, No. 11/2013-054.
  • Attanasio, O. et al. (2000), “Saving, growth, and investment: A macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 182-21.
  • Barr, N. (1979), “Myths my grandpa taught me”, Three Banks Review, 124, 27-55.
  • Barr, N. (2002), “Reforming pensions: Myths, truths, and policy choices”, International Social Security Review, 55(2), 3-36.
  • Chetty, R. et al. (2014), “Active vs Passive Decisions and Crowd-Out in Retirement Savings Accounts: Evidence from Denmark”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(3), 1141-1219.
  • Corondao, J.L. et al. (2003), “Public Funds and Private Capital Markets: The Investment Practices and Performance of State and Local Pension Funds”, National Tax Journal, 56(3), 579-594.
  • Datz, G. & K. Dancsi (2013), “The politics of pension reform reversal: A comparative analysis of Hungary and Argentina”, East European Politics, 29(1), 83-100.
  • De Mesa, A.A. & C. Mesa-Lago (2006), “The Structural Pension Reform in Chile: Effects, Comparisons with Other Latin American Reforms, and Lessons”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 22(1), 149-167.
  • Deaton, A. (1992), Understanding Consumption, Oxford University Press.
  • Disney, R. (2000), “Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What are the Reform Options?”, The Economic Journal, 110(461), F1-F23.
  • Genakoplos, J. et al. (2000), “Would a Privatized Social Security System Really Pay a Higher Rate of Return?”, NBER Working Paper Series No 6713.
  • Iglesias, A. & R.J. Palacios (2000), “Managing public pension reserves - Part I: evidence from the international experience”, Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21311, The World Bank.
  • James, E. (1998), “New Models for Old-Age Security Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions”, World Bank Research Observer, 13(2), 271-301.
  • Jung, C.L. (2009), “A Political Economy of Pension Reform in Korea”, PhD Thesis, Department of Sociological Studies, The University of Sheffield.
  • Kotlikoff, L.J. (1995), “Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters”, NBER Working Paper Series No. 5330.
  • Lachowska, M. & M. Myck (2018), “The Effect of Public Pension Wealth on Saving and Expenditure”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(3), 284-308.
  • Loayzai, N. et al. (2000), “Saving in developing countries: An overview”, The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 393-414.
  • Lorca, M. (2021), “Effects of COVID-19 Early Release of Pension Funds: The Case of Chile”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 88(4), 903-936.
  • Louzek, M. (2014), “Pension reform in the Czech Republic after 2010”, Post-Communist Economies, 26(1), 89-102.
  • Messacar, D. (2015), “Do workplace pensions crowd out other retirement savings? Evidence from Canadian tax records”, Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series Catalogue No 11F0019M No. 371. Statistics Canada.
  • OECD (1998), Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Palacios, R. & M. Pallarès-Miralles (2000), “International Patterns of Pension Provision”, Social Protection Discussion Paper Series, No. 0009; World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Pension Policy International (2021), Chile’s president will sign into law third drawdown on pensions, <https://www.pensionpolicy.net/chiles-president-will-sign-into-law-third-drawdown-on-pensions/>, 28.04.2021.
  • Polakowski, M. & K. Hagemejer (2018), “Reversing pension privatization the case of Polish pension reform and re- reforms”, ILO Working Papers 995005392802676, International Labour Organization.
  • Roseveare, D. et al. (1996), “Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers (No. 168).
  • Samuelson, P.A. (1954), “The pure theory of public expenditure”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 36(4), 386-389.
  • Scholz, W. (2015), “Financing social security out of contributions: About origins, present discussions, and prospects of a success story”, International Social Security Review, 68(4), 3-24.
  • Sleebos, J. (2003), “Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responses”, OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers, No. 15, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Tokol, A. & Y. Alper (eds.) (2018), Sosyal Politika, Bursa: Dora Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • United Nations (2017), World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections (No. ESA/P/WP.250), New York.
  • Vaillancourt, F.F. et al. (2015), Compulsory Government Pensions vs Private Savings: The Effect of Previous Expansion to the Canada Pension Plan, Frasier Institute, Canada.
  • Wolf, I. & L.C. del Rio (2021), “Sustainability of funded pension schemes: A financial position perspective using options”, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(4), 111-119.
  • World Bank (1994), Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth, Washington D.C.: World Bank Group.
  • Yang, T. (2020), “The Effect of Workplace Pensions on Household Saving: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 87(1), 173-194.
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Çağaçan Değer 0000-0001-8555-4632

Publication Date July 29, 2022
Submission Date July 11, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 30 Issue: 53

Cite

APA Değer, Ç. (2022). Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation. Sosyoekonomi, 30(53), 119-136. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06
AMA Değer Ç. Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation. Sosyoekonomi. July 2022;30(53):119-136. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06
Chicago Değer, Çağaçan. “Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation”. Sosyoekonomi 30, no. 53 (July 2022): 119-36. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06.
EndNote Değer Ç (July 1, 2022) Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation. Sosyoekonomi 30 53 119–136.
IEEE Ç. Değer, “Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 30, no. 53, pp. 119–136, 2022, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06.
ISNAD Değer, Çağaçan. “Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation”. Sosyoekonomi 30/53 (July 2022), 119-136. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06.
JAMA Değer Ç. Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30:119–136.
MLA Değer, Çağaçan. “Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 30, no. 53, 2022, pp. 119-36, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06.
Vancouver Değer Ç. Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30(53):119-36.