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Covid-19 Pandemisi Havayollarının Filo Kullanımı Nasıl Etkiledi, Etkileyecek?

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 192 - 209, 20.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.994820

Abstract

Küresel çapta krize sebep olan COVID-19 virüsü havayolu kullanımını olumsuz şekilde etkilemiştir. Havayolları, sınırların kapatılmasıyla uçuş yapamaz hale gelmiştir. Kriz sebebiyle yolculuk talebi azalmış, uçuş rotaları kısalmış, uçuş sıklıkları azalmış, kullanılan uçakların ortalama ağırlıkları düşmüştür. Havayolları düşen talep karşısında kullanmadıkları uçaklarını Avrupa’nın dört bir yanında farklı havaalanlarına park etmişlerdir. Her havayolu filo yönetimi konusunda bazı kararlar almış, farklı tercihlerde bulunmuşlardır. İçinde bulunduğumuz pandemi koşulları her havayolunu farklı düzeyde etkilediği düşünülmektedir. Eurocontrol verileri doğrultusunda havayollarının filolarının kullanımlarının incelendiği bu çalışmada, Avrupa hava sahasında en yoğun uçuş trafiği yaratan ve en büyük filoya sahip 10 havayolunun filo kullanımları zaman serisi analizi yöntemi kullanarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmada amaç örneklem içerisine alınan havayollarının filo kullanımlarının farklı zamanlarda nasıl etkilendiğini gözlemlemek ve bu gözlem doğrultusunda bahsedilen etkilerin nedenleri doğrultusunda tahmin yapmaktır. Böylece havayollarının filo yapılarını tekrar gözden geçirme olanağı bulabilecekleri düşünülmektedir. Analiz neticesinde filo kullanımında en büyük dalgalanmanın Vueling ve Easyjet’te, diğer havayollarına nispeten en az dalgalanmanın Türk Hava Yolları (THY) ve KLM’de olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Ortaya çıkan sonuçlar neticesinde havayollarına farklı öneriler sunulmuştur. Havayolları politik bağlarını gözden geçirmeli, hükümetlerle daha yakın ilişkiler kurmalıdırlar. Filo yapılarını gözden geçirecek havayolları yeni uçak siparişlerinde ortaklık yapılarına uygun siparişler vermelidirler. Uçuş ağlarıyla birlikte iş modellerini değiştirecek havayolları filo yapılarını, bu yeni modele göre kurmalıdır.

References

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  • D. A. Jean and G. Lohmann, “Revisiting the airline business model spectrum: The influence of post global financial crisis and airline mergers in the US (2011−2013)”, Research in Transportation Business & Management, 21, 76-83, 2016.
  • M. Adler, G. Martini, N. Volta “Measuring the environmental efficiency of the global aviation fleet", Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 53, 82-100, 2013.
  • J. F. O’Connell ve G. Williams, “Transformation of India’s Domestic Airlines: A case study of Indian Airlines, Jet Airways, Air Sahara and Air Deccan”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 12, 358-374, 2006.
  • K. Kiracı and M. Bakır, “Using the Multi Criteria Decision Making Methods in Aircraft Selection Problems and an Application”, Journal of Transportation and Logistics, 13-24, 2018.
  • M. Dursun, J. O'Connel, Z. Lei, D. Warnock Smith, “The transformation of a legacy carrier – A case study of Turkish Airlines", Journal of Air Transport Management, 40, 106-118, 2014.
  • L. Moir, G. Lohmann, “A quantitative means of comparing competitive advantage among airlines with heterogeneous business models: Analysis of U.S. airlines”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 69, 72-82, 2018.
  • W. Wei and M. Hansen, “An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, c. 40, 841-851, 2006.
  • X. Fageda, J. L. Jiménez, J. Perdiguero, ve K. Marrero, “Does market exit of a network airline affect airline prices and frequencies on tourist routes?”, Tourism Management, 61, 465-471, 2017.
  • L. B. Bauer, D. Bloch, ve R. Merkert, “Ultra Long-Haul: An emerging business model accelerated by COVID-19”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 89, 2020.
  • D. Bhadra, “Race to the bottom or swimming upstream: Performance analysis of US airlines”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 15, 227-235, 2009.
  • V. Pai, “On the factors that affect airline flight frequency and aircraft size”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 16, 169-177, 2010.
  • K. Wang, Q. Gong, X. Fu, ve X. Fan, “Frequency and aircraft size dynamics in a concentrated growth market: The case of the Chinese domestic market”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 36, 50-58, 2014.
  • J. Daft and S. Albers, “An empirical analysis of airline business model convergence”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 46, 3-11, 2015.
  • R. Merkert and D. Henscher, “The impact of strategic management and fleet planning on airline efficiency – A random effects Tobit model based on DEA efficiency scores”, Journal of Air Management, 45, 686-695, 2011.
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  • G. Martini and A. Manello, D. Scotti, “The influence of fleet mix, ownership and LCCs on airports’ technical/environmental efficiency”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 50, , 37-52, 2013.
  • J. K. Brueckner and C. Abreu, “Airline fuel usage and carbon emissions: Determining factors”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 62, 10-17, 2017.
  • G. Bruno, E. Esposito, and A. Genovese, “A model for aircraft evaluation to support strategic decisions”, Expert Systems with Applications, 42, 5580-5590, 2015.
  • S. Dožić, “Multi-criteria decision making methods: Application in the aviation industry”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 79, 2019,
  • S. Dožić and M. Kalić, “An AHP Approach to Aircraft Selection Process”, Transportation Research Procedia, 3, 165-174, 2014.
  • L. F. A. M. Gomes, J. E. de Mattos Fernandes, and J. C. C. B. S. de Mello, “A fuzzy stochastic approach to the multicriteria selection of an aircraft for regional chartering: A Fuzzy Stochastıc Multıcrıterıa Selectıon Of An Aırcraft”, J. Adv. Transp., 48, 223-237, 2014.
  • M. A. Ilgin, “Aircraft Selection Using Linear Physical Programming”, Havacılık ve Uzay Teknolojileri Dergisi, 12, 121-128, 2019.
  • Y. Ozdemir, H. Basligil, and M. Karaca, “Aircraft Selection Using Analytic Network Process”, The World Congress on Engineering, 8, 9-13, 2011
  • H. Semercioğlu and Hatice Hicret Özkoç, “Analitik Hiyerarşi Proses ile Desteklenmiş Sosyal Seçim Teorisi: Havayollarında Uçak Seçim Süreci”, Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Researches, 20, 67-92, 2019.
  • L. E. Teoh and Hooi Ling Khoo, “Airline Strategic Fleet Planning Framework”, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 11, 2258-2276 2015.
  • Lufthansa, “Şimdi daha esnek biçimde rezervasyon yapın ve endişesizce uçun | Lufthansa”.https://www.lufthansa.com/tr/tr/homepage [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
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  • Easyjet, “easyJet | ekonomik seyahatler için ucuz uçak seferleri, otel ve araç kiralama rezervasyonları”. https://www.easyjet.com/tr [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021).
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  • M. Lee, L. K. B. Li, and W. Song, “Analysis of direct operating cost of wide-body passenger aircraft: A parametric study based on Hong Kong”, Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 32, 5, 1222-1243, 2019.

How Has The Covid-19 Pandemic Affected Airline Fleet Utilization?

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 192 - 209, 20.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.994820

Abstract

The COVID-19 virus, which caused a global crisis, has negatively affected the use of airlines since the beginning of the pandemic. Airlines have become unable to fly with the closure of borders. Due to the crisis, travel demand has decreased, flight routes have shortened, flight frequencies have decreased, and the average weight of the aircraft used has decreased. In the face of falling demand, airlines have parked their aircraft, which they do not use for supply, at different airports all over Europe. Each airline has taken some decisions about fleet management and made different choices. It is thought that airlines are affected differently due to quarantines and closures under the current pandemic conditions. In the study, which examines the use of fleets of airlines between January 1, 2020 and June 26, 2021, in line with Eurocontrol data, the fleet usages of 10 airlines that create the heaviest flight traffic in the European Airspace and have the largest fleet are examined using the time series analysis method. The aim of the study is to observe how the fleet usage of the airlines included in the sample is affected at different times and to make predictions in line with the reasons for the mentioned effects in line with this observation. Thus, airlines will have the opportunity to reconsider their fleet structures. As a result of the analysis, it was observed that the highest volatility in fleet usage was in Vueling and Easyjet, and the least volatility in Turkish Airlines and KLM compared to other airlines. As a result of the results, different suggestions were presented to the airlines. Airlines should review their political ties and establish closer relations with governments. Airlines that will review their fleet structures should place orders in accordance with their partnership structure in new aircraft orders. Airlines that will change their business models with their flight networks should establish their fleet structures according to this new model.

References

  • Eurocontonrol, “COVID-19 - Grounded aircraft in the EUROCONTROL area Aviation IntelligenceUnitPortal”.https://ansperformance.eu/covid/acft_ground/ [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • K. Kiracı ve E. Akan, “Aircraft selection by applying AHP and TOPSIS in interval type-2 fuzzy sets”, Journal of Air Transport Management, c. 89, s. 101924, Eki. 2020.
  • N. Adrienne, L. Budd, and S. Ison, “Grounded aircraft: An airfield operations perspective of the challenges of resuming flights post COVID”, Journal of Air Transport Management, c. 89, s. 101921, Eki. 2020.
  • L. Budd, S. Ison, and N. Adrienne, “European airline response to the COVID-19 pandemic – Contraction, consolidation and future considerations for airline business and management”, Research in Transportation Business & Management, c. 37, s. 100578, Ara. 2020.
  • Eurocontrol, “EUROCONTROL Data Snapshot on airline schedules in 2020”. https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-data-snapshot [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • Eurocontrol,“EUROCONTROL Data Snapshot#7”.https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-data-snapshot-covid-impact-europe-long-haul [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • Eurocontrol, “EUROCONTROL Data Snapshot#9”https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-data-snapshot-2020s-smaller-aircraft-shorter-flights-and-fluctuating-weight [Erişim Tarihi: 25-7-2021].
  • Eurocontrol,“EUROCONTROL Data Snapshot”.https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-data-snapshotmanufacturer-share-flights-europe [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • E. Gerede, A. Demirci, Ü. Battal, ve A. Sarılgan, Havayolu Yönetimi. Eskişehir, Türkiye: Anadolu Üniversitesi 2016.
  • D. A. Jean and G. Lohmann, “Revisiting the airline business model spectrum: The influence of post global financial crisis and airline mergers in the US (2011−2013)”, Research in Transportation Business & Management, 21, 76-83, 2016.
  • M. Adler, G. Martini, N. Volta “Measuring the environmental efficiency of the global aviation fleet", Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 53, 82-100, 2013.
  • J. F. O’Connell ve G. Williams, “Transformation of India’s Domestic Airlines: A case study of Indian Airlines, Jet Airways, Air Sahara and Air Deccan”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 12, 358-374, 2006.
  • K. Kiracı and M. Bakır, “Using the Multi Criteria Decision Making Methods in Aircraft Selection Problems and an Application”, Journal of Transportation and Logistics, 13-24, 2018.
  • M. Dursun, J. O'Connel, Z. Lei, D. Warnock Smith, “The transformation of a legacy carrier – A case study of Turkish Airlines", Journal of Air Transport Management, 40, 106-118, 2014.
  • L. Moir, G. Lohmann, “A quantitative means of comparing competitive advantage among airlines with heterogeneous business models: Analysis of U.S. airlines”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 69, 72-82, 2018.
  • W. Wei and M. Hansen, “An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, c. 40, 841-851, 2006.
  • X. Fageda, J. L. Jiménez, J. Perdiguero, ve K. Marrero, “Does market exit of a network airline affect airline prices and frequencies on tourist routes?”, Tourism Management, 61, 465-471, 2017.
  • L. B. Bauer, D. Bloch, ve R. Merkert, “Ultra Long-Haul: An emerging business model accelerated by COVID-19”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 89, 2020.
  • D. Bhadra, “Race to the bottom or swimming upstream: Performance analysis of US airlines”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 15, 227-235, 2009.
  • V. Pai, “On the factors that affect airline flight frequency and aircraft size”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 16, 169-177, 2010.
  • K. Wang, Q. Gong, X. Fu, ve X. Fan, “Frequency and aircraft size dynamics in a concentrated growth market: The case of the Chinese domestic market”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 36, 50-58, 2014.
  • J. Daft and S. Albers, “An empirical analysis of airline business model convergence”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 46, 3-11, 2015.
  • R. Merkert and D. Henscher, “The impact of strategic management and fleet planning on airline efficiency – A random effects Tobit model based on DEA efficiency scores”, Journal of Air Management, 45, 686-695, 2011.
  • Boeing, “Boeing: Current Aircraft Finance MarketOutlook”.https://www.boeing.com/company/key-orgs/boeing-capital/current-aircraft-financing-market.page [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • G. Martini and A. Manello, D. Scotti, “The influence of fleet mix, ownership and LCCs on airports’ technical/environmental efficiency”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 50, , 37-52, 2013.
  • J. K. Brueckner and C. Abreu, “Airline fuel usage and carbon emissions: Determining factors”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 62, 10-17, 2017.
  • G. Bruno, E. Esposito, and A. Genovese, “A model for aircraft evaluation to support strategic decisions”, Expert Systems with Applications, 42, 5580-5590, 2015.
  • S. Dožić, “Multi-criteria decision making methods: Application in the aviation industry”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 79, 2019,
  • S. Dožić and M. Kalić, “An AHP Approach to Aircraft Selection Process”, Transportation Research Procedia, 3, 165-174, 2014.
  • L. F. A. M. Gomes, J. E. de Mattos Fernandes, and J. C. C. B. S. de Mello, “A fuzzy stochastic approach to the multicriteria selection of an aircraft for regional chartering: A Fuzzy Stochastıc Multıcrıterıa Selectıon Of An Aırcraft”, J. Adv. Transp., 48, 223-237, 2014.
  • M. A. Ilgin, “Aircraft Selection Using Linear Physical Programming”, Havacılık ve Uzay Teknolojileri Dergisi, 12, 121-128, 2019.
  • Y. Ozdemir, H. Basligil, and M. Karaca, “Aircraft Selection Using Analytic Network Process”, The World Congress on Engineering, 8, 9-13, 2011
  • H. Semercioğlu and Hatice Hicret Özkoç, “Analitik Hiyerarşi Proses ile Desteklenmiş Sosyal Seçim Teorisi: Havayollarında Uçak Seçim Süreci”, Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Researches, 20, 67-92, 2019.
  • L. E. Teoh and Hooi Ling Khoo, “Airline Strategic Fleet Planning Framework”, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 11, 2258-2276 2015.
  • Lufthansa, “Şimdi daha esnek biçimde rezervasyon yapın ve endişesizce uçun | Lufthansa”.https://www.lufthansa.com/tr/tr/homepage [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • Türk Hava Yolları, “Türk Hava Yolları ® | Dünyanın En Çok Ülkesine Uçan Havayolu”. https://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/ [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • British Airways | Book Flights, Holidays, City Breaks & Check In Online. https://www.britishairways.com/travel/home/public/en_us/ [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • Air France - Air France portal sites. https://www.airfrance.com/indexCom_en.html (erişim Kas. 25, 2021).
  • KLM Royal Dutch Airlines – Flights | Vliegtickets | Flüge. https://www.klm.com/ (erişim Kas. 25, 2021).
  • Pegasus, “Pegasus: İndirimli ve Ucuz Uçak Bileti Fiyatları ile Uçuş Ara”. https://www.flypgs.com/ [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021].
  • Easyjet, “easyJet | ekonomik seyahatler için ucuz uçak seferleri, otel ve araç kiralama rezervasyonları”. https://www.easyjet.com/tr [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021).
  • Ryanair, “Official Ryanair website | Book direct for the lowest fares | Ryanair.com”. https://www.ryanair.com/tr/en [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11- 2021).
  • Vueling, “Vueling: cheap flights to major European cities - Vueling”. https://www.vueling.com/en [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11- 2021).
  • Wizz Air, “Official Wizz Air website | Book direct for the best prices”. https://wizzair.com/ [Erişim Tarihi: 25-11-2021).
  • Structural breaks in time series - Aue - 2013 - Journal of Time Series Analysis - Wiley Online Library”.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2012.00819.x (Erişim Kas. 25, 2021).
  • S. Cro and A. Martins,“Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?”, Tourism Management, 63, 3-9, 2021.
  • M. Mert and A. E. Çağlar, Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi. Ankara, Türkiye: Detay Yayıncılık, 2019.
  • N. Ç. Yavuz, “CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth for Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegration Test With a Structural Break”, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9, 229-235, 2014.
  • M. Lee, L. K. B. Li, and W. Song, “Analysis of direct operating cost of wide-body passenger aircraft: A parametric study based on Hong Kong”, Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 32, 5, 1222-1243, 2019.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Halil Semercioglu 0000-0002-5779-6172

Hatice Özkoç 0000-0003-0037-4603

Publication Date December 20, 2021
Submission Date September 13, 2021
Acceptance Date December 7, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 5 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Semercioglu, H., & Özkoç, H. (2021). Covid-19 Pandemisi Havayollarının Filo Kullanımı Nasıl Etkiledi, Etkileyecek?. Journal of Aviation, 5(2), 192-209. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.994820

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