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Year 2009, Volume: 1 Issue: 1, 162 - 176, 31.01.2009

Munise Ilıkkan Özgür Bilal Savaş

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye'de, nüfus ve kişi başına ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. ARDL eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı kullanılarak, uzun dönemde kişi başına ekonomik büyüme ve nüfus arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi kanıtlanmıştır.

Keywords

Nedensellik Nüfus Ekonomik Büyüme Eşbütünleşme Türkiye

References

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  • BARRO, R.J. and BECKER, G.S. (1989). Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica, vol. 57, pp. 481–501.
  • BECKER, G.S. (1992). Fertility and the economy. Journal of Population Economics, vol. 5, pp. 185–201.
  • BECKER, G.S. and BARRO, R.J. (1988). A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 103, pp. 1–25.
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  • Economic Growth. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings
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  • BECKER, G.S., MURPHY, K. and TAMURA, R. (1990). Human capital fertility
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  • BLAUG, M. (1962). Economic theory in retrospect, Heinemann, London.
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  • BLOOM, D.D., CANNING, D. and MALANEY, P. (2001). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Population and Development Review, vol. 26, pp. 257–290.
  • BROWN, R.L., DURBIN, J. and EVANS, J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical Methodology, vol. 37, pp. 149– 163.
  • CARRUTH, A., DICKERSON, A. and HENLEY, A. (2000). Econometric
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  • DAWSON, P. and TRIFFIN, R. (1998). Is there a long-run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India. Journal of Development Studies, vol. 34, pp. 149–156.
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  • EHRLICH, I. (1990). Introduction. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, pp. 1– 11.
  • EHRLICH, I. and LUI, F.T. (1991). Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 99, pp. 1029–1059.
  • ENGLE, R. and GRANGER, C. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, vol. 55, pp. 251– 276.
  • GALOR, O. and WEIL, D. (1999). From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, vol. 89, pp. 150–154.
  • GALOR, O. and WEIL, D. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: from the Malthusian regime to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, vol. 90, pp. 806–828.
  • GONZALO, J. (1994). Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 60, pp. 203–233.
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  • JOHANSEN, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, vol. 59, pp. 1551–1580.
  • JOHANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—With Application to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52, pp. 169–210.
  • JOHNSON, D. G. (1999). Population and economic development, China Economic Review, vol. 10, pp. 1–16.
  • KELLEY, A. and SCHIMIDT, R. (1994). Population and income change: recent evidence. World Bank Discussion Paper. No. 249.
  • KUZNETS, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. American Philosophical Society Proceedings, vol. 3, pp. 170–93.
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  • MALTHUS, T. R. (1992). An Essay on the Principles of Population, original published in 1798. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
  • MEIER, G. M. (1995). Leading Issues in Economic Development. 6th ed. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • MILL, J.S. (1965). In: BLADEN, V.W. and ROBSON, J.M. Editors. Principles of political economy, University of Toronto Press, Toronto.
  • NARAYAN, P.K. and SMYTH, R. (2006). Higher education, real income and real investments in China: evidence from Granger causality tests, Education Economics, vol. 14, pp. 107–125.
  • PESARAN, M.H. and PESARAN, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration. In STROM S. (eds). Econometrics and Economic Theory in 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
  • PESARAN, M.H., SHIN, Y. and SMITH, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, pp. 289–326.
  • SAMUELSON, P. A. (1988). Mathematical vindication of Ricardo on machinery. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 96, pp. 274–82.
  • SCHUMPETER, J.A. (1954). History of economic analysis, Oxford Univ. Press, New York, NY.
  • SMITH, A. (1976). In: CANNAN, E. Editor. An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
  • SOLOW, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, pp. 65–94.
  • STOCK, J. H. and WATSON, M. W. (1988). Variable Trend in Economic Time Series. Journal of Economic Prospective, vol. 1, pp. 147–174.
  • TANG, C. T. (2001). Bank Lending and Inflation in Malaysia: Assessment from Unrestricted Error-Correction Models, Asian Economic Journal, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 275–289.
  • TANG, C. T. (2002). Demand for M3 and Expenditure Components in Malaysia:
  • An Assessment from Bound Testing Approach, Applied Economic
  • Letters, vol. 9, pp. 721–725.
  • THIRLWALL, A. (1972). A cross section study of population growth and the
  • growth of output and per capita income in a production function
  • framework. Manchester School, vol. 40, pp. 339–356.
  • THORNTON, J. (2001). Population growth and economic growth: long-run
  • evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, vol. 68, pp. 464–468.
  • WANG, P., YIP, C.K. and SCOTESE, C.A. (1994). Fertility choice and economic
  • growth theory and evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 255–266.

TEMPORAL CAUSALITY BETWEEN POPULATION AND INCOME IN TURKEY: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

Year 2009, Volume: 1 Issue: 1, 162 - 176, 31.01.2009

Munise Ilıkkan Özgür Bilal Savaş

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the causal relationship between population and per capita economic growth in Turkey. Using the ARDL approach to cointegration, we find evidence of long-run bi-directional causality between per capita economic growth and population.

Keywords

Causality Population Economic Growth Cointegration Turkey

References

  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M. and GOSWAMI, G. G. (2003). A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners, International Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 27, pp. 102–113.
  • BARRO, R.J. and BECKER, G.S. (1989). Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica, vol. 57, pp. 481–501.
  • BECKER, G.S. (1992). Fertility and the economy. Journal of Population Economics, vol. 5, pp. 185–201.
  • BECKER, G.S. and BARRO, R.J. (1988). A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 103, pp. 1–25.
  • BECKER, G. S., GLAESER, E. L. and MURPHY, K. M. (1999). Population and
  • Economic Growth. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings
  • , no. 2, pp. 145–49.
  • BECKER, G.S., MURPHY, K. and TAMURA, R. (1990). Human capital fertility
  • and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, pp. 12–37.
  • BLAUG, M. (1962). Economic theory in retrospect, Heinemann, London.
  • BLOOM, D.D. and WILLIAMSON, J.G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, vol. 12, pp. 419–455.
  • BLOOM, D.D., CANNING, D. and MALANEY, P. (2001). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Population and Development Review, vol. 26, pp. 257–290.
  • BROWN, R.L., DURBIN, J. and EVANS, J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical Methodology, vol. 37, pp. 149– 163.
  • CARRUTH, A., DICKERSON, A. and HENLEY, A. (2000). Econometric
  • Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and
  • Uncertainty, The Manchester School, vol. 3, pp. 276-300.
  • CURRAIS, L. (2000). From the Malthusian regime to the demographic transition: contemporary research and beyond. Economica, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 75–101.
  • DAWSON, P. and TRIFFIN, R. (1998). Is there a long-run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India. Journal of Development Studies, vol. 34, pp. 149–156.
  • EASTERLIN, R. (1967). Effects of population growth in the economic development of developing countries. The Annals of the American Academy of Political & Social Science, vol. 369, pp. 98–108.
  • EHRLICH, I. (1990). Introduction. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, pp. 1– 11.
  • EHRLICH, I. and LUI, F.T. (1991). Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 99, pp. 1029–1059.
  • ENGLE, R. and GRANGER, C. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, vol. 55, pp. 251– 276.
  • GALOR, O. and WEIL, D. (1999). From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, vol. 89, pp. 150–154.
  • GALOR, O. and WEIL, D. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: from the Malthusian regime to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, vol. 90, pp. 806–828.
  • GONZALO, J. (1994). Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 60, pp. 203–233.
  • JOHANSEN, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, pp. 231–254.
  • JOHANSEN, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, vol. 59, pp. 1551–1580.
  • JOHANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—With Application to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52, pp. 169–210.
  • JOHNSON, D. G. (1999). Population and economic development, China Economic Review, vol. 10, pp. 1–16.
  • KELLEY, A. and SCHIMIDT, R. (1994). Population and income change: recent evidence. World Bank Discussion Paper. No. 249.
  • KUZNETS, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. American Philosophical Society Proceedings, vol. 3, pp. 170–93.
  • LAGERLOF, N. P. (2003). From Malthus to modern growth: can epidemics explain the three regimes. International Economic Review, vol. 44, pp. 755–77.
  • MACKINNON, J. G. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests. Chapter 13 in ENGLE, R. F. and GRANGER, C. W. J. (eds.). Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration. Oxford University Pres. Oxford.
  • MADDISON, A. (1982). Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • MALTHUS, T. R. (1992). An Essay on the Principles of Population, original published in 1798. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
  • MEIER, G. M. (1995). Leading Issues in Economic Development. 6th ed. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • MILL, J.S. (1965). In: BLADEN, V.W. and ROBSON, J.M. Editors. Principles of political economy, University of Toronto Press, Toronto.
  • NARAYAN, P.K. and SMYTH, R. (2006). Higher education, real income and real investments in China: evidence from Granger causality tests, Education Economics, vol. 14, pp. 107–125.
  • PESARAN, M.H. and PESARAN, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration. In STROM S. (eds). Econometrics and Economic Theory in 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
  • PESARAN, M.H., SHIN, Y. and SMITH, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, pp. 289–326.
  • SAMUELSON, P. A. (1988). Mathematical vindication of Ricardo on machinery. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 96, pp. 274–82.
  • SCHUMPETER, J.A. (1954). History of economic analysis, Oxford Univ. Press, New York, NY.
  • SMITH, A. (1976). In: CANNAN, E. Editor. An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
  • SOLOW, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, pp. 65–94.
  • STOCK, J. H. and WATSON, M. W. (1988). Variable Trend in Economic Time Series. Journal of Economic Prospective, vol. 1, pp. 147–174.
  • TANG, C. T. (2001). Bank Lending and Inflation in Malaysia: Assessment from Unrestricted Error-Correction Models, Asian Economic Journal, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 275–289.
  • TANG, C. T. (2002). Demand for M3 and Expenditure Components in Malaysia:
  • An Assessment from Bound Testing Approach, Applied Economic
  • Letters, vol. 9, pp. 721–725.
  • THIRLWALL, A. (1972). A cross section study of population growth and the
  • growth of output and per capita income in a production function
  • framework. Manchester School, vol. 40, pp. 339–356.
  • THORNTON, J. (2001). Population growth and economic growth: long-run
  • evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, vol. 68, pp. 464–468.
  • WANG, P., YIP, C.K. and SCOTESE, C.A. (1994). Fertility choice and economic
  • growth theory and evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 255–266.
There are 57 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA44CZ37PP
Journal Section Review Article
Authors

Munise Ilıkkan Özgür

Bilal Savaş

Publication Date January 31, 2009
Published in Issue Year 2009Volume: 1 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ilıkkan Özgür, M., & Savaş, B. (2009). TEMPORAL CAUSALITY BETWEEN POPULATION AND INCOME IN TURKEY: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(1), 162-176.
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